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Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion: Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction Number Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion: Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction Number Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040?

Introductory Circuit Analysis (13th Edition)
Introductory Circuit Analysis (13th Edition)
13th Edition
ISBN:9780133923605
Author:Robert L. Boylestad
Publisher:Robert L. Boylestad
Chapter1: Introduction
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P: Visit your local library (at school or home) and describe the extent to which it provides literature...
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Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 Transistor count 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 11 10 8 log(y) 7 1,000,000 500,000 6 сл 100,000 50,000 3 10,000 5,000 1,000 TMS 1000 Intel 8008 Intel 4004 1970 Zilog Z80 RCA 1802 1972 80808085 Motorola MS Technology 1974 1976 Motorola 680000 Intel 8086 Intel 8088 Motorola Intel 80386 Motorola 68020 Intel 80286 1978 TI Explorer's 3 Lisp machine chip 1980 Transistor count Intel 80186 6C16 ₂ 1982 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 1,000,000 500,000 1984 100,000 50,000 Intel 80486 N2016 1,000 1986 ARM 2 ARM 1 1970 1986 10,000 TMS 1000 5,000 Intel 8008 Intel 4004 Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion: 1988 REGL Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. 1972 The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. ARM 3 Motor Pentium Pro Pentium 。 1990 ARM 6 Zilog 280 RCA 1802 o R4000 1974 Pentium 4 Northwood Barton Pentium 4 Willamette Pentium Il Mobile Dixono AMD K7 AMD K6- 1992 ARM700 AMD K6 Motorola 68000 1976 Motorola 。 SA 110 80808085 88 Technology 1978 Kamath 5KS 1994 1996 Intel 8086 Intel 8088 MB cache Itanium 2 Madison 6MO Itanium 2 McKinley Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Pentium D Smithfield- 1980 WRS 65002 1998 Intel 80386 Motorola 680200 Intel 80286 ABM STOMI 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Six-core Xeon 7400, Dual-core Itanium 20 Pentium D Presler POWERS 。 Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancernent is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? num Il Deschutes 1982 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip Intel 80186 AMD KB Pentium 4 Pres4 Cedar Mill Pentium Il Tualatin Pentium III Coppermine 2000 9 65C8169 1984 2002 Intel 80486 ARM 2 ARM 1986 1988 Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction Number 2004 Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? IBM 213 Storage Controller. 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5. Xbox One main SoC 61-core Xeon Phi 12-core POWER 8 DEC WRL MultiTitan ARM 3 909 Core i7 (Quad) AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Core 2 Duo Conroe Cell 1990 2006 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 GC2 IPU SPARC M7. ARM 6 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Core 2 Duo Allendale R4000 2008 Atom ARM Cortex-A9 AMD K6 Pentium Pro Pentium 1992 2010 2012 ARM700 1994 SA-110 Apple A12X Bionic Tegra Xavier SoC 888 Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 HiSilicon Kirin 9 20 rin 980+ Apple A12 Bionic HiSilicon Kirin 710 10-core Core i7 Broadwell- Qualcomm Snapdrago Dual-core GPU GT2 Core Quad-core GPU Quad-core Broadwell-U 2 Core i7 Skylake K GPU Core i7 Haswell Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC") 2014 Pentium 4 Northwood Pentium 4 Willamette Pentium II Mobile Dixon, AMD K7 AMD K6- Pentium II Klamath AMOKS 1996 Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. 2016 32-core AMD Epyc • Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. 1998 2018 Pentium Katmai Pentium D Presler POWERS Itanium 2 Madison 6M Pentium D Smithfield Itanium 2 McKinley Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO AMD KB Pentium 4 Prescott Barton Pentium III Tualatin Pentium III Coppermine 2000 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Six-core Xeon 7400, Dual-core Itanium 20 Our World in Data 2002 IBM 213 Storage Controller, 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 Xbox One main SoC. 61-core Xeon Phi 12-core POWER 2004 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 GC2 IPU SPARC M7 2006 Core i7 (Quad) AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 2 Duo Conroe Atom 2008 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Core 2 Duo Allendale Pentium 4 Cedar Mill ARM Cortex-A9 8 2010 2012 0 2014 32-core AMD Epyc Apple A12X Bionic Tegra Xavier SoC Quad-c Quad-core + Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC") Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 HiSilicon Kirin 980+ Apple A12 Bionic HiSilicon Kirin 710 80-core Corg 17 Broadw GPU Ins Core i7 Broadwell-U +GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K Dual-core i7 Haswell 2016 Our in Data 2018 Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.
Transcribed Image Text:Moore's Law – The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancement is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 Transistor count 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 11 10 8 log(y) 7 1,000,000 500,000 6 сл 100,000 50,000 3 10,000 5,000 1,000 TMS 1000 Intel 8008 Intel 4004 1970 Zilog Z80 RCA 1802 1972 80808085 Motorola MS Technology 1974 1976 Motorola 680000 Intel 8086 Intel 8088 Motorola Intel 80386 Motorola 68020 Intel 80286 1978 TI Explorer's 3 Lisp machine chip 1980 Transistor count Intel 80186 6C16 ₂ 1982 10,000,000,000 5,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 100,000,000 50,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 1,000,000 500,000 1984 100,000 50,000 Intel 80486 N2016 1,000 1986 ARM 2 ARM 1 1970 1986 10,000 TMS 1000 5,000 Intel 8008 Intel 4004 Questions to be answered in your Brightspace Discussion: 1988 REGL Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. 1972 The following is the same plot but with the common logarithm of the y-axis shown. You can see that log(y) goes up uniformly. ARM 3 Motor Pentium Pro Pentium 。 1990 ARM 6 Zilog 280 RCA 1802 o R4000 1974 Pentium 4 Northwood Barton Pentium 4 Willamette Pentium Il Mobile Dixono AMD K7 AMD K6- 1992 ARM700 AMD K6 Motorola 68000 1976 Motorola 。 SA 110 80808085 88 Technology 1978 Kamath 5KS 1994 1996 Intel 8086 Intel 8088 MB cache Itanium 2 Madison 6MO Itanium 2 McKinley Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO Pentium D Smithfield- 1980 WRS 65002 1998 Intel 80386 Motorola 680200 Intel 80286 ABM STOMI 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Six-core Xeon 7400, Dual-core Itanium 20 Pentium D Presler POWERS 。 Moore's Law - The number of transistors on integrated circuit chips (1971-2018) Moore's law describes the empirical regularity that the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. This advancernent is important as other aspects of technological progress - such as processing speed or the price of electronic products - are linked to Moore's law. 50,000,000,000 Part c: Do you think that your prediction in Part b is believable? Why or why not? num Il Deschutes 1982 TI Explorer's 32-bit Lisp machine chip Intel 80186 AMD KB Pentium 4 Pres4 Cedar Mill Pentium Il Tualatin Pentium III Coppermine 2000 9 65C8169 1984 2002 Intel 80486 ARM 2 ARM 1986 1988 Part a: The number of transistors per IC in 1972 seems to be about 4,000 (a rough estimate by eye). Using this estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be 20 years later, in 1992? Prediction Number 2004 Part b: From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? IBM 213 Storage Controller. 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5. Xbox One main SoC 61-core Xeon Phi 12-core POWER 8 DEC WRL MultiTitan ARM 3 909 Core i7 (Quad) AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale Core 2 Duo Conroe Cell 1990 2006 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 GC2 IPU SPARC M7. ARM 6 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Core 2 Duo Allendale R4000 2008 Atom ARM Cortex-A9 AMD K6 Pentium Pro Pentium 1992 2010 2012 ARM700 1994 SA-110 Apple A12X Bionic Tegra Xavier SoC 888 Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 HiSilicon Kirin 9 20 rin 980+ Apple A12 Bionic HiSilicon Kirin 710 10-core Core i7 Broadwell- Qualcomm Snapdrago Dual-core GPU GT2 Core Quad-core GPU Quad-core Broadwell-U 2 Core i7 Skylake K GPU Core i7 Haswell Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC") 2014 Pentium 4 Northwood Pentium 4 Willamette Pentium II Mobile Dixon, AMD K7 AMD K6- Pentium II Klamath AMOKS 1996 Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser. 2016 32-core AMD Epyc • Data source: Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count) The data visualization is available at OurWorldinData.org. There you find more visualizations and research on this topic. 1998 2018 Pentium Katmai Pentium D Presler POWERS Itanium 2 Madison 6M Pentium D Smithfield Itanium 2 McKinley Pentium 4 Prescott-2MO AMD KB Pentium 4 Prescott Barton Pentium III Tualatin Pentium III Coppermine 2000 8-core Xeon Nehalem-EX Six-core Xeon 7400, Dual-core Itanium 20 Our World in Data 2002 IBM 213 Storage Controller, 18-core Xeon Haswell-E5 Xbox One main SoC. 61-core Xeon Phi 12-core POWER 2004 72-core Xeon Phi Centriq 2400 GC2 IPU SPARC M7 2006 Core i7 (Quad) AMD K10 quad-core 2M L3 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 2 Duo Conroe Atom 2008 Core 2 Duo Wolfdale 3M Core 2 Duo Allendale Pentium 4 Cedar Mill ARM Cortex-A9 8 2010 2012 0 2014 32-core AMD Epyc Apple A12X Bionic Tegra Xavier SoC Quad-c Quad-core + Apple A7 (dual-core ARM64 "mobile SoC") Qualcomm Snapdragon 8cx/SCX8180 HiSilicon Kirin 980+ Apple A12 Bionic HiSilicon Kirin 710 80-core Corg 17 Broadw GPU Ins Core i7 Broadwell-U +GPU GT2 Core i7 Skylake K Dual-core i7 Haswell 2016 Our in Data 2018 Licensed under CC-BY-SA by the author Max Roser.
Solve the problem below. Copy the description of your forecast in the box below and include that as part of your initial Discussion post in Brightspace. Using "copy" from here in Mobius and "paste" into Brightspace should work. Hint: The chart is taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress. From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 10¹ - 10, 10² = 100, 10³ = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced. Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,. 1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc. The following a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this.
Transcribed Image Text:Solve the problem below. Copy the description of your forecast in the box below and include that as part of your initial Discussion post in Brightspace. Using "copy" from here in Mobius and "paste" into Brightspace should work. Hint: The chart is taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress. From the chart, estimate (roughly) the number of transistors per IC in 2018. Using your estimate and Moore's Law, what would you predict the number of transistors per IC to be in 2040? In some applications, the variable being studied increases so quickly ("exponentially") that a regular graph isn't informative. There, a regular graph would show data close to 0 and then a sudden spike at the very end. Instead, for these applications, we often use logarithmic scales. We replace the y-axis tick marks of 1, 2, 3, 4, etc. with y-axis tick marks of 10¹ - 10, 10² = 100, 10³ = 1000, 104 = 10000, etc. In other words, the logarithms of the new tick marks are equally spaced. Technology is one area where progress is extraordinarily rapid. Moore's Law states that the progress of technology (measured in different ways) doubles every 2 years. A common example counts the number of transitors per integrated circuit. A regular y-axis scale is appropriate when a trend is linear, i.e. 100 transistors, 200 transistors, 300 transistors, 400 transistors, etc. However, technology actually increased at a much quicker pace such as 100 transistors,. 1,000 transistors, 10,000 transistors, 100,000 transistors, etc. The following a plot of the number of transistors per integrated circuit over the period 1971 - 2008 taken from https://ourworldindata.org/technological-progress (that site contains a lot of data, not just for technology). At first, this graph seems to show a steady progression until you look carefully at the y-axis it's not linear. From the graph, it seems that from 1971 to 1981 the number of transistors went from about 1,000 to 40,000. Moore's Law predicts that in 10 years, it would double 5 times, i.e. go from 1,000 to 32,000, and the actual values (using very rough estimates) seem to support this.
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