Questions 9-12. Officials administer a drug test to 500 athletes to determine if they are using performance-enhancing drugs (PEDS). A positive result indicates that the athlete is using performance-enhancing drugs; a negative result indicates that the athlete is not using these drugs. However, this test is not 100% accurate, so some errors occur. The following table shows the results for a group of athletes. Athlete PED Use Athletes using PEDS Athletes not using PEDS Total Positive Test Result 87 5 92 Negative Test Result 15 393 |408 Total 102 398 500 Imagine yourself as an official interpreting the results of the test. What actions might you take against an athlete who receives a positive result? Proceed with caution as the test may be wrong, and ask the athlete to take the test a second time. Enforce a stricter drug policy so that the athlete that used PEDS has to take less in the future. Suspend the athlete for cheating and penalize them for any accolades or achievements they've received. Turn a blind eye and let the athlete continue competing as long as there are still false positives.
Addition Rule of Probability
It simply refers to the likelihood of an event taking place whenever the occurrence of an event is uncertain. The probability of a single event can be calculated by dividing the number of successful trials of that event by the total number of trials.
Expected Value
When a large number of trials are performed for any random variable ‘X’, the predicted result is most likely the mean of all the outcomes for the random variable and it is known as expected value also known as expectation. The expected value, also known as the expectation, is denoted by: E(X).
Probability Distributions
Understanding probability is necessary to know the probability distributions. In statistics, probability is how the uncertainty of an event is measured. This event can be anything. The most common examples include tossing a coin, rolling a die, or choosing a card. Each of these events has multiple possibilities. Every such possibility is measured with the help of probability. To be more precise, the probability is used for calculating the occurrence of events that may or may not happen. Probability does not give sure results. Unless the probability of any event is 1, the different outcomes may or may not happen in real life, regardless of how less or how more their probability is.
Basic Probability
The simple definition of probability it is a chance of the occurrence of an event. It is defined in numerical form and the probability value is between 0 to 1. The probability value 0 indicates that there is no chance of that event occurring and the probability value 1 indicates that the event will occur. Sum of the probability value must be 1. The probability value is never a negative number. If it happens, then recheck the calculation.
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