Question 3: The question concerns polling in the context of a constitutional referendum, in particular the proposed indigenous voice referendum of 2023. (i) A poll was conducted on the 29th of May 2023 of all Australians. It said that overall, a proportion of 0.563 said they would vote yes. The sample size was 1742 people. Calculate the 99% confidence interval of the chance of a yes vote. (ii) Please explain any practical limitations in respect of the result you just calculated. (iii) There is a tendency for polls in constitutional referendums to overestimate the yes-vote. The probability distribution for this is given below. Showing your working (and given the information in Part (i)), please calculate the chance that there will be a 'no' vote as an outcome. Overestmation (%) Probability 812345 0 Overestmation (%) Probability 0.2000 0.0500 0.2000 0.1000 0.0500 67899 0.1000 0.0500 0.2000 0 0.0500 0 10

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Question 3:
The question concerns polling in the context of a constitutional referendum, in
particular the proposed indigenous voice referendum of 2023.
(i) A poll was conducted on the 29th of May 2023 of all Australians. It said that
overall, a proportion of 0.563 said they would vote yes. The sample size was 1742
people. Calculate the 99% confidence interval of the chance of a yes vote.
(ii) Please explain any practical limitations in respect of the result you just
calculated.
(iii) There is a tendency for polls in constitutional referendums to overestimate the
yes-vote. The probability distribution for this is given below. Showing your working
(and given the information in Part (i)), please calculate the chance that there will be
a 'no' vote as an outcome.
Overestmation (%) Probability
0
2
3
5
67899
0.1000
0.0500
Overestmation (%) Probability
0.2000
0.0500
10
0.2000
0
0.0500
0
0.2000
0.1000
0.0500
Transcribed Image Text:Question 3: The question concerns polling in the context of a constitutional referendum, in particular the proposed indigenous voice referendum of 2023. (i) A poll was conducted on the 29th of May 2023 of all Australians. It said that overall, a proportion of 0.563 said they would vote yes. The sample size was 1742 people. Calculate the 99% confidence interval of the chance of a yes vote. (ii) Please explain any practical limitations in respect of the result you just calculated. (iii) There is a tendency for polls in constitutional referendums to overestimate the yes-vote. The probability distribution for this is given below. Showing your working (and given the information in Part (i)), please calculate the chance that there will be a 'no' vote as an outcome. Overestmation (%) Probability 0 2 3 5 67899 0.1000 0.0500 Overestmation (%) Probability 0.2000 0.0500 10 0.2000 0 0.0500 0 0.2000 0.1000 0.0500
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