QUESTION 1 The ACF for a data series is high until lag 3 then starts declining smoothly after lag 3 The PACF for that data series is high until lag 4 then starts declining smoothly after lag 4 What models would be a reasonable starting point based on these patterns? An AR model with up to 4 AR terms, no MA component an ARMA model with up to 4 AR terms and up to 3 MA terms O An MA model with up to 3 MA terms, no AR component O An ARMA model with up to 3 AR terms and up to 4 MA terms

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QUESTION 1
The ACF for a data series is high until lag 3 then starts declining smoothly after lag 3
The PACF for that data series is high until lag 4 then starts declining smoothly after lag 4
What models would be a reasonable starting point based on these patterns?
O An AR model with up to 4 AR terms, no MA component
O an ARMA model with up to 4 AR terms and up to 3 MA terms
O An MA model with up to 3 MA terms, no AR component
O An ARMA model with up to 3 AR terms and up to 4 MA terms
QUESTION 2
Assume that we are comparing three different models: model 1, model 2, and model 3
• The AIC for model 1 is -10, the BIC is -11
• The AIC for model 2 is -8, the BIC is -12
• The AIC for model 3 is -7, the BIC is -9
Which of the following statements is true
O Model 3 fits the data much better than model 1 and model 2. We always want the AIC and the BIC to be high
O AIC prefers model 1, BIC prefers model 2, both models should be kept as potential alternatives depending on the researcher's preferences
AIC prefers model 2, BIC prefers model 1, both models should be kept as potential alternatives depending on the researcher's preferences
O AIC prefers model 1, BIC prefers model 2, we should only use model 1 because the AIC is the only way to select a model
Transcribed Image Text:QUESTION 1 The ACF for a data series is high until lag 3 then starts declining smoothly after lag 3 The PACF for that data series is high until lag 4 then starts declining smoothly after lag 4 What models would be a reasonable starting point based on these patterns? O An AR model with up to 4 AR terms, no MA component O an ARMA model with up to 4 AR terms and up to 3 MA terms O An MA model with up to 3 MA terms, no AR component O An ARMA model with up to 3 AR terms and up to 4 MA terms QUESTION 2 Assume that we are comparing three different models: model 1, model 2, and model 3 • The AIC for model 1 is -10, the BIC is -11 • The AIC for model 2 is -8, the BIC is -12 • The AIC for model 3 is -7, the BIC is -9 Which of the following statements is true O Model 3 fits the data much better than model 1 and model 2. We always want the AIC and the BIC to be high O AIC prefers model 1, BIC prefers model 2, both models should be kept as potential alternatives depending on the researcher's preferences AIC prefers model 2, BIC prefers model 1, both models should be kept as potential alternatives depending on the researcher's preferences O AIC prefers model 1, BIC prefers model 2, we should only use model 1 because the AIC is the only way to select a model
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