Q4: The following time series shows the annual production of a factory: 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 the year 17 12 9 5 4 annual production Required: Drawa trend line using moving averages method (cycle |length is three years)
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![Q4: The following time series shows the annual production of a factory:
2009 2008 2007 2006 200S
the year
17
12 9
5
4
annual production
Required: Draw a trend line using moving averages method (cycle
length is three years)](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2F4b2dd28c-fcad-4bd6-80bc-56cff8680bac%2Fc6c91b4e-bf3b-4723-8e14-65b48c9c56e0%2F6uqkdj_processed.jpeg&w=3840&q=75)
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- At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.In the past Peter Kelles tire dealership in Baton Rouge sold an average of 1,100 radial each year. In the past 2 years, 220 and 240 respectively were sold in fall, 360 and 320 in winter and 140 and 160 in spring and 300 and 460 in summer. with a major expansion planned, Kelle projects sales next year to increase 1300 radials. Based on next years projected sales the demand for each season is going to be (enter your response as whole numbers) season demand fall [___]Forecast is calculating estimates of future cycle/s based on data of past cycles -- there is no?
- The Grand Bakery produces 60 special sourdough rolls every day. Any rolls that are not sold each day are given to the employees. They have collected sales data from the past week: Day Rolls sold 1 50 2 50 3 48 4 60 5 53 6 60 What is the value of F6 if they use a 3-day weighted moving average with W1 = 0.6, W2 = 0.2, and W3 = 0.2? Using the data from above, calculate the forecast for period 7 using a four-period moving average:The number of heart surgeries performed at HeartvilleGeneral Hospital has increased steadily over the past sev-eral years. The hospital’s administration is seeking the bestmethod to forecast the demand for such surgeries in year 6.The data for the past 5 years are shown. The hospital’s administration is considering the followingforecasting methods. Begin error measurement in year 3 soall methods are compared for the same years.i. Exponential smoothing, with a = 0.6. Let the initial fore-cast for year 1 be 45, the same as the actual demand.ii. Exponential smoothing, with a = 0.9. Let the initial fore-cast for year 1 be 45, the same as the actual demand.iii. Trend projection with regression.iv. Two-year moving average.v. Two-year weighted moving average, using weights 0.6 and0.4, with more recent data given more weight.vi. If MAD is the performance criterion chosen by the admin-istration, which forecasting method should it choose?vii. If MSE is the performance criterion chosen by the…(4) The Great Northwest Outdoor Company is a catalog sales operation that specializes in outdoor recreational clothing. Demand for its items is very seasonal, peaking during the holiday season and during the spring. It has accumulated the following data for orders per season (quarter) during the past five years. Orders (1,000s) Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Winter (Q 1) Spring (Q 2) Summer (Q 3) 18.6 18.1 22.4 23.2 24.5 23.5 24.7 28.8 27.6 31.0 20.4 19.5 21.0 24.4 23.7 Fall (Q 4) Total 41.9 46.3 45.5 47.1 52.8 104.4 108.6 117.7 122.3 132.0 Develop a seasonally adjusted forecast model for these order data. Forecast demand for each quarter for year 6, using the annual trend line as given: Y(t) = 96.33 + 6.89t (a) Find seasonal index for each quarter (b) Find seasonally adjusted demand forecast for each quarter for year 6 (c) Find MAD for seasonally adjusted forecasting for year 1 through 5.
- The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 October 5 Pints Used 350 370 412 378 371 378 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average: response to two decimal places). 106 pints (round yourTucson Machinery, Inc., manufactures numerically controlled machines, which sell for an average price of $0.5 million each. Sales for these NCMS for the past two years were as follows: Use Exhibit 18.10. LAST YEAR THIS YEAR QUANTITY (UNITS) QUANTITY QUARTER (UNITS) QUARTER I 11 I 16 II 17 II 23 III 25 III 27 IV 15 IV 18 a. Find the equation of a simple linear regression line using Excel. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) Y = b. Compute trend and seasonal factor from a linear regression line obtained with Excel. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) Period Trend Forecast Seasonal Factors Last Year II IV This Year II III IVData collected on the yearly registrations for a Six Sigma seminar at the Quality College are shown in the following table: Year -1 2 Registrations (000) 5.0 5.0 Year Forecast 4 4.3 This exercise contains only parts a and b. a) Using a 3-year moving average, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your responses to one decimal place): 5 4.6 4 3 3.0 5 6 6.6 7 8 4 5 6 9 10 6.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 9.0 13.0 16.0 6 7 8.7 8 9 7 9 8.3 b) Using a 3-year weighted moving average in which the registrations in the most recent year are given a weight of 2, and registrations in the other 2 years are each given a weight of 1, the forecasted registrations (in thousands) for years 4 through 12 are (round your responses to one decimal place): Year Forecast 8 10 9.6 9 11 12.6 10 12 15.3 11 11 17.0 12
- Worked Problems (Show your calculations in order to get full credit) 1. Favors Distribution Company purchases small imported trinkets in bulk, packages them, and sells them to retail stores. They are conducting an inventory control study of all their items. The following data for the year 2006 are for one such item, which is not seasonal. [10 Points] | Month Sales Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 19 11 14 17 12 14 16 Aug 15 a. Use trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the trend line equation in this problem). b. Calculate forecasts for February 2007, April 2007, and February 2008The K&R Camera shop sells all the latest cameras and accessories. To meet customer demand, the manager must forecast demand for items she sells. Lately the XR-42S zoom lens has been very popular. Recent monthly demand for this item has been as shown: Number of Lenses Month Sold 1 12 17 2 3 4 15 20 18 23 6.QWE Inn has recorded the following number of rooms sold for the first quarter of the year: January 2100 February 2500 March 2550 What is the 3-month moving average forecast of rooms sold equal to for the month April?
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