12.2 The manager of the I-85 Carpet outlet needs to be able to forecast accurately the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpets from one of the outlets many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8 months. Month 1 23 4 Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1000 yd) 5 10 69 8

Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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b. Compute a weighted three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.
Assign weights of 0.55, 0.33, and 0.12 to the months in sequence, starting with the
most recent month.
c. Compare the two forecasts using MAD. Which forecast appears to be more
accurate?
12.3 The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden
shops. The company must base its quarterly production schedule on a forecast of how
many tons of fertilizer will be demanded from it. The company has gathered the
following data for the past three years from its sales records.
Demand for Fertilizer (ton)
Year
1
2
3
Quarter
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
105
150
93
121
140
170
105
150
150
170
110
130
a. Compute a three-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 4 through 13
and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
b. Compute a five-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 6 through 13 and
compute the forecast error for each quarter.
c. Compute a weighted three-quarter moving average forecast using weights of
0.50, 0.33, and 0.17 for the most recent, next recent, and most distant data,
respectively, and compute the forecast error for each quarter.
d. Compare the forecasts developed in parts (a), (b), and (c) using cumulative
error. Which forecast appears to be most accurate? Do any exhibit any bias?
Transcribed Image Text:b. Compute a weighted three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of 0.55, 0.33, and 0.12 to the months in sequence, starting with the most recent month. c. Compare the two forecasts using MAD. Which forecast appears to be more accurate? 12.3 The LawnPlus Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The company must base its quarterly production schedule on a forecast of how many tons of fertilizer will be demanded from it. The company has gathered the following data for the past three years from its sales records. Demand for Fertilizer (ton) Year 1 2 3 Quarter 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 105 150 93 121 140 170 105 150 150 170 110 130 a. Compute a three-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 4 through 13 and compute the forecast error for each quarter. b. Compute a five-quarter moving average forecast for quarters 6 through 13 and compute the forecast error for each quarter. c. Compute a weighted three-quarter moving average forecast using weights of 0.50, 0.33, and 0.17 for the most recent, next recent, and most distant data, respectively, and compute the forecast error for each quarter. d. Compare the forecasts developed in parts (a), (b), and (c) using cumulative error. Which forecast appears to be most accurate? Do any exhibit any bias?
12.2 The manager of the I-85 Carpet outlet needs to be able to forecast accurately the
demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough
carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpets from one of the outlets
many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8
months.
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1000 yd)
5
10
6
8
14
10
9
12
a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.
Transcribed Image Text:12.2 The manager of the I-85 Carpet outlet needs to be able to forecast accurately the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customers will buy their carpets from one of the outlets many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8 months. Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1000 yd) 5 10 6 8 14 10 9 12 a. Compute a three-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.
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