Q11A manufacturing company is faced with the problem of choosing four products of manufacture. Thepotential demand for each product may turn out to be good, satisfactory and poor. The probabilities,estimated for each type of demand, are given below:ProductProbabilities of types of demandGoodSatisfactoryРorA0.600.200.20В0.750.150.100.600.250.150.500.200.30The estimated profit or loss under the different states of demand in respect of each product may betaken as:Product$$.$A40,00040,00050,00040,00010,00020,00015,00018,0001,100(-) 7,000(-), 8,00015,000ВCDPrepare the expected value table and advise the company about the choice of the product tomanufacture.BCD

Answered: Q11 A manufacturing company is faced…

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

A consultant has been hired to redesign a company's production facility. The consultant estimates the probabilities of her potential profit as shown in the table below. What is her profit expectation? Profit/Loss Probability $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $5,000 0.08 0.30 0.38 0.20 0.04
An actuary is analyzing the lapse experience of his company's whole life product. The tabulated results are as follows: Age group % of whole life policyholders probability of lapsing 8 % < 20 5 % 20 – 29 13 % 5 % 30 – 39 21 % 4 % 40 – 49 29 % 4 % 50 – 59 17 % 3 % 60 + 12 % 2 % Since the age group 40-49 is the most profitable, what is the probability that a lapsed policy will belong to this cohort?
Beagle Clothiers uses a weighted score for the evaluation and selection of its suppliers of trendy fashion garments. Each supplier is rated on a 10-point scale (10 = highest) for four different criteria: price, quality, delivery, and flexibility (to accommodate changes in quantity and timing). Because of the volatility of the business in which Beagle operates, flexibility is given twice the weight of each of the other three criteria, which are equally weighted (the sum of the four weights equals 1). The table shows the scores for three potential suppliers for the four performance criteria. Supplier A Supplier decimal place.) Criteria 1. Price 2. Quality 3. Delivery 4. Flexibility Based on the highest weighted score, which supplier should be selected? should be selected, with a total weighted score of 6 7 5 co C Rating Supplier B Supplier C 8 9 8 6 8 7 5 8 6 (Enter your response rounded to one
Bob, the proprietor of Midway Lumber, bases his projections for the annual revenues of the company on the performance of the housing market. He rates the performance of the market as very strong, strong, normal, weak, or very weak. For the next year, Bob estimates that the probabilities for these outcomes are 0.15, 0.25, 0.39, 0.09, and 0.12, respectively. He also thinks that the revenues corresponding to these outcomes are $23, $18.6, $16.9, $14, and $6 million, respectively. What is Bob's expected revenue for next year?
The proprietor of Midland Construction Company has to decide between two projects. He estimates that the first project will yield a profit of $160,000 with a probability of 0.7 or a profit of $120,000 with a probability of 0.3; the second project will yield a profit of $220,000 with a probability of 0.6 or a profit of $70,000 with a probability of 0.4.Find the expected profit for each project. first project $ second project $ Which project should the proprietor choose if he wants to maximize his expected profit? first project second project
Suppose an oil company is thinking of buying some land for $10,000,000. There is a 60%60% chance of economic growth and a 40%40% chance of recession. The probability of discovering oil is 44%44% when there is economic growth and 32%32% when there is a recession. If there is economic growth and the oil company discovers oil, the value of the land will triple. If they do not discover oil, the value of the land will decrease by 10%.10%. If there is a recession and the company discovers oil, the value of the land will increase by 50%.50%. If they do not discover oil, the land will decrease in value by 75%.75%. What is the expected value of the investment? Give your answer to the nearest dollar. Avoid rounding within calculations. $$ Select the correct interpretation of the expected value. The expected value represents what the actual investment value will be for this land purchase of $10,000,000. The company should make the investment because the expected value…
A payoff table is given as S1 S2 S3 D1 250 750 500 D2 300 -250 1200 D3 500 500 600 a. What choice should be made by the optimistic decision maker? b. What choice should be made by the conservative decision maker? c. What decision should be made under minimax regret? d. If the probabilities of d1, d2, and d3 are .2, .5, and .3 respectively, then what choice should be made under expected value?
A company is facing three types of decisions for the purchasing of a seasonal product. The profitprojection may depend on the demand level. The payoffs for the situations are given in the followingtable:DemandDecision High (s1) Medium (s2) Low (s3)d1 60 60 50d2 80 80 30d3 100 70 101. If the prior probabilities are 0.3, 0.3, and 0.4, respectively, what is the recommended decision?Show all the calculations and answer with a decision tree.2. At each preseason sales meeting, the vice president of sales provides a personal opinion regarding potential demand for the product. The prediction of the vice president have alwaysbeen either excellent (E) or very good (G). Posterior probabilities are as follows.P(V)=0.7; P(E)=0.3P(s1|E)=0.34; P(s1|V)=0.2P(s2|E)=0.32; P(s2|V)=0.26;Use a decision tree to give the optimal decision strategy.43. Give the EVPI and the EOL, and EVSI.4. Suppose that the prior probability of a low demand is always fixed to 0.4, give a sensitivityanalysis on the other…
You have done risk analysis and determine the following risks and their probabilities could affect your project. Based on these risks, what should you contingency reserve be? Risk 1: 50% chance of a weather delay costing $5,000Risk 2: 20% chance of a worker strike costing $10,000Risk 3: 10% chance of catastrophic failure costing $50,000
Hoping to diversify suppliers, a manufacturer buys the same component from three sources, with 24% of the components from vendor A, 39% from vendor B, and 37% from vendor C. Based on past experience, the manufacturer expects that vendors A, B, and C will produce defective components at a rate of 1.5%, 1.2%, and 1.8%, respectively. What is the expected proportion of defective components in the manufacturer’s stock?
Spam: A researcher reported that 71.8% of all email sent in a recent month was spam. A system manager at a large corporation believes that the percentage at his company may be 70%. He examines a random sample of 500 emails received at an email server, and finds that 374 of the messages are spam. Can you conclude that the percentage of emails that are spam is greater than 70% ? Use both a=0.10 and a=0.01 levels of significance and the P-value method with the TI-84 Plus calculator. Part: 0/ 4 Part 1 of 4 State the appropriate null and alterņate hypotheses. do O
Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at four different locations within the city limits. The radar traps at each of the locations L1, L2, L3, and L4 will be operated 40%, 30%, 20%, and 30% of the time. If a person who is speeding on her way to work has probabilities of 0.2, 0.1, 0.5, and 0.2, respectively, of passing through these locations, what is the probability that she will receive a speeding ticket?

Recommended textbooks for you

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

Probability

ISBN:

9780134753119

Author:

Sheldon Ross

Publisher:

PEARSON

A First Course in Probability

Probability

ISBN:

9780321794772

Author:

Sheldon Ross

Publisher:

PEARSON

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

Probability

ISBN:

9780134753119

Author:

Sheldon Ross

Publisher:

PEARSON

A First Course in Probability

Probability

ISBN:

9780321794772

Author:

Sheldon Ross

Publisher:

PEARSON

SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS