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- A distribution company purchases two parts from the same supplier. When the company places an order there is a common procurement cost of $1750, in addition to $300 (Product I) and $100 (Product II) of individual procurement costs. Product I has a weekly demand of 500 units with a standard deviation of 50 units, Product I values $200, target CSL is 94%, and lead time is one month. Product II has a weekly demand of 60 units with a standard deviation of 15 units, each Product II values $1200, target CSL is 99%, and lead time is 3 months. The company uses 24% as the inventory holding rate per year (1 year is 52 weeks or 12 months) • Assuming each product is individually ordered using periodic review policy, compute T*, M*, and TC of Product I and II individually. . Assuming these products are jointly replenished, what will be the T*, M₁, M₁, TC? What is the amount of savings when products are jointly ordered compared to individual ordering?Your company must decide whether to introduce a new product. The sales of the product will be either at a high (success) or low (failure) level. The conditional value for this decision is as follows Decision High Low Introduce $4,000,000 -$2,000,000 Do Not Introduce 0 0 Probability 0.3 0.7 You have the option to conduct a market survey to sharpen you market demand estimate. The survey costs $200,000. The survey provides incomplete information about the sales, with three possible outcomes: (1) predicts high sales, (2) predicts low sales, or (3) inconclusive. Such surveys have in the past provided these results Result High Low Predicts High 0.4 0.1 Inconclusive 0.4 0.5 Predicts Low 0.2 0.4 a) Using expected monetary value, what is your decision? b) What is the expected value of perfect information before taking the survey? c) Draw the complete decision tree, including the survey option. d) What is the…A bottling plant i lls 2,400 bottles every two hours. The lead time is 40 minutes and a container accommodates 120 bottles. The safety stock is 10 percent of expected demand. How many kanban cards are needed?
- Your savings account balance at the end of May was $500. You made a $200 deposit on June 4 and withdrew $100 on June 25. Calculate your average (mean) daily balance for June.The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $45 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost are estimated as follows: Procurement Cost($) 10 $ 11 12 Probability 0.25 0.45 0.30 Labor Cost ($) 20 22 24 25 Probability 0.10 0.25 0.35 0.30 Transportation Cost ($) 3 5 (a) Compute profit per unit for the base-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios. Base Case using most likely costs Profit = $ /unit Worst Case Profit = $ /unit Best Case Profit = $ /unit Probability 0.75 0.25 (b) Construct a simulation model to estimate the mean profit per unit. (Use at least 1,000 trials.) (c) Why is the simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios? Simulation will provide ---Select--- of the profit per unit values which can then be used to find ---Select--- ◆ of an unacceptably low…Please answer the question Minimum 150 words How is it possible to measure the risk and consider the tradeoff risk return? (Time value of money)
- EXAMPLE 18.3 Micro Pizza Heater: Market Demand A factory renovation is needed to build a compact microwave with a new shape, which will be called the Micro Pizza Heater. The low sales-volume prediction (20,000 heaters per year) has a subjectively estimated probability of 30%. The most likely market prediction is 30,000 units sold per year. The optimistic market prediction (30,000 sold the first year, with annual increases of 5000) has a subjectively estimated probability of 10%. In all cases, the factory equipment and the market will last 5 years. The net revenue will be $10 per microwave. What is the probability distribution for the net revenue?You are at a casino and there are three slot machines you can use to bet on. You must have a return of .5% of higher on what you are betting. Below is the expected returns for each slot machine under various scenarios. What combination of machines do you play to maximize your average return? Decision Variables Data Slot 1 100.0% Monday Tuesday Wednesda Average Slot 2 0.0% Slot #1 8% 4% 5% 5.667% Slot 3 0.0% Slot #2 2% -3% 3% 0.667% Slot #3 6% -2% 4% 2.667% Objective 5.7% Constraints 0.08 >= 0.5% 0.04 >= 0.5% 0.05 >= 0.5% 100.0% .: 100%St. John's Brewery (SJB) is getting ready for a busy tourist season. SJB wants to either increase production or produce the same amount as last year, depending on the demand level for the coming season. SJB estimates the probabilities for high, medium and low demands as 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5 respectively, on the basis of the number of tourists forecasted by the local recreational bureau. If SJB increases production, the expected profits corresponding to high, medium and low demands are $750,000, $325,000 and $100,000 respectively. If SJB does not increase production, the expected profits are $450,000, $325,000 and $150,000 respectively. (NOTE: Text answers are case sensitive and the value of different parts of this question is indicated in square brackets [*/*]) Construct a decision tree for SJB. On the basis of the EV, what should SJB do? What is the expected value of increasing production? What is the expected value of not increasing production? Should SJB increase production (enter…
- 15 Demand for residential electricity at a certain time period in Hamilton County is normally distributed with a mean of μ = 5595 megawatts (MW) and a standard deviation of σ = 405 MW Due to scheduled maintenance and unexpected system failures in a generating station, the utility company can supply a maximum of x = 6200 MW The probability that the utility will have to purchase electricity from other utilities or allow brownouts is ______. 0.0974 0.0811 0.0676 0.05635Fethe's Funny Hats is considering selling trademarked, orange-haired curly wigs for University of Tennessee football games. The purchase cost for a 2-year franchise to sell the wigs is $20,000. If demand is good (40% probability), then the net cash flows will be $27,000 per year for 2 years. If demand is bad (60% probability), then the net cash flows will be $9,000 per year for 2 years. Fethe's cost of capital is 14%. A. What is the expected NPV of the project? B. Use decision-tree analysis to calculate the expected NPV of this project, including the option to continue for an additional 2 years. B. Use decision-tree analysis to calculate the expected NPV of this project, including the option to continue for an additional 2 years.