11 12 0.45 0.30 22 24 25 0.25 0.35 0.30 5 /unit /unit /unit 0.25 profit per unit for the base-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios. e using most likely costs se Profit = $ Profit = $ Profit = $ e ta simulation model to estimate the mean profit per unit. (Use at least 1,000 trials.) he simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios?
11 12 0.45 0.30 22 24 25 0.25 0.35 0.30 5 /unit /unit /unit 0.25 profit per unit for the base-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios. e using most likely costs se Profit = $ Profit = $ Profit = $ e ta simulation model to estimate the mean profit per unit. (Use at least 1,000 trials.) he simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios?
Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1QTC
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Transcribed Image Text:The management of Brinkley Corporation is interested in using simulation to estimate the profit per unit for a new product. The selling price for the product will be $45 per unit. Probability distributions for the purchase cost, the labor cost, and the transportation cost
are estimated as follows:
Procurement
Cost($)
10
$
11
12
Probability
0.25
0.45
0.30
Labor
Cost ($)
20
22
24
25
Probability
0.10
0.25
0.35
0.30
Transportation
Cost ($)
3
5
(a) Compute profit per unit for the base-case, worst-case, and best-case scenarios.
Base Case using most likely costs
Profit = $
/unit
Worst Case
Profit = $
/unit
Best Case
Profit = $
/unit
Probability
0.75
0.25
(b) Construct a simulation model to estimate the mean profit per unit. (Use at least 1,000 trials.)
(c) Why is the simulation approach to risk analysis preferable to generating a variety of what-if scenarios?
Simulation will provide ---Select---
of the profit per unit values which can then be used to find ---Select--- ◆ of an unacceptably low profit.
(d) Management believes the project may not be sustainable if the profit per unit is less than $5. Use simulation to estimate the probability the profit per unit will be less than $5. (Round your answer to three decimal places.)
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