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Problem 7 Suppose that the additive Holt-Winters method was applied to the monthly red wine data with = 0.5, y = 0.2, 8 = 0.3 and 120 = 2213.5, b120 = 47.9, and the following seasonality estimates were obtained for the last year. α = Month t Yt 109 1138 Jan Feb 110 1430 Mar 111 1809 Apr 112 1763 May 113 2200 June 114 2067 Snt -660.32 -334.45 -195.04 -66.93 181.27 125.55 Month July Aug 116 2141 Sep 117 2103 Oct 118 1972 Nov 119 2181 Dec 120 2344 Yt t 115 2503 Snt 489.57 413.68 45.44 -87.83 4.49 93.92 a. Calculate the point estimate of next February's sales y122 forecast made in month 120, i.e., ŷ122 (120). b. Consider the same method as in part (a). Suppose that the wine sales y121 was observed in January of year 11 (t = 121) as 1910 kiloliters. Update the level, the growth rate, and the seasonal factor estimates.

Problem 7 Suppose that the additive Holt-Winters method was applied to the monthly red wine data with = 0.5, y = 0.2, 8 = 0.3 and 120 = 2213.5, b120 = 47.9, and the following seasonality estimates were obtained for the last year. α = Month t Yt 109 1138 Jan Feb 110 1430 Mar 111 1809 Apr 112 1763 May 113 2200 June 114 2067 Snt -660.32 -334.45 -195.04 -66.93 181.27 125.55 Month July Aug 116 2141 Sep 117 2103 Oct 118 1972 Nov 119 2181 Dec 120 2344 Yt t 115 2503 Snt 489.57 413.68 45.44 -87.83 4.49 93.92 a. Calculate the point estimate of next February's sales y122 forecast made in month 120, i.e., ŷ122 (120). b. Consider the same method as in part (a). Suppose that the wine sales y121 was observed in January of year 11 (t = 121) as 1910 kiloliters. Update the level, the growth rate, and the seasonal factor estimates.

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
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Problem 7 Suppose that the additive Holt-Winters method was applied to the monthly red wine data with a = 0.5, y = 0.2, 8= 0.3 and 1120 = 2213.5, b120 47.9, and the following seasonality estimates were obtained for the last year. Month t Yt Jan 109 1138 Feb 110 1430 Mar 111 1809 Apr 112 1763 113 2200 May June 114 2067 Snt -660.32 -334.45 -195.04 -66.93 181.27 125.55 Month July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Yt t 115 2503 snt 489.57 116 2141 413.68 117 2103 45.44 118 1972 -87.83 119 2181 4.49 120 2344 93.92 a. Calculate the point estimate of next February's sales y122 forecast made in month 120, i.e., ŷ122 (120). b. Consider the same method as in part (a). Suppose that the wine sales y121 was observed in January of year 11 (t = 121) as 1910 kiloliters. Update the level, the growth rate, and the seasonal factor estimates.
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 7 Suppose that the additive Holt-Winters method was applied to the monthly red wine data with a = 0.5, y = 0.2, 8= 0.3 and 1120 = 2213.5, b120 47.9, and the following seasonality estimates were obtained for the last year. Month t Yt Jan 109 1138 Feb 110 1430 Mar 111 1809 Apr 112 1763 113 2200 May June 114 2067 Snt -660.32 -334.45 -195.04 -66.93 181.27 125.55 Month July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Yt t 115 2503 snt 489.57 116 2141 413.68 117 2103 45.44 118 1972 -87.83 119 2181 4.49 120 2344 93.92 a. Calculate the point estimate of next February's sales y122 forecast made in month 120, i.e., ŷ122 (120). b. Consider the same method as in part (a). Suppose that the wine sales y121 was observed in January of year 11 (t = 121) as 1910 kiloliters. Update the level, the growth rate, and the seasonal factor estimates.
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