Pricilla Phranklin opened her clothing store, Pricilla Phashions, in Downtown Dover a little over three years ago. Pants, skirts, blouses, and shirts have fairly consistent sales, while things like shorts, sweater and outerwear are highly seasonal. On the other hand, dresses are a little harder to predict. Pricilla is hiring you to arrive at the best forecasting method for dresses. The following table contains three years of dress sales data Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Mont Dema Dema Dema h nd nd nd Jan 186 217 212 Feb 222 220 245 Mar 220 239 252 Apr 356 362 376 May 720 727 757 011 Jun 367 376 404 Jul 340 341 354 Aug 293 290 324 Sep 305 296 338 Oct 600 600 618 325 318 356 679 708 4613 4694 انال Nov Dec Total 713 4. 5. 4949 Using the dress data above, calculate the following 1. Forecast year 3 using a simple 3 period moving average 2. Forecast year 3 Calculate a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. Assume a = 0.20 3. (a) Using the information you have for years 1 & 2, calculate a monthly index. (b) Using year 1 and 2 data determine the slope and intercept of line equation using linear regression. Finally, calculate the new annual demand and forecast the monthly demand for year 3 Using the actual Year-3 numbers check your forecast accuracy, by calculating CFE, MSE, MAD, MAPE, and the tracking signal Finally, you are to indicate which forecasting technique is best and do an analysis of the shortcoming of each forecasting method, as indicated by the measure of forecast accuracy.
Pricilla Phranklin opened her clothing store, Pricilla Phashions, in Downtown Dover a little over three years ago. Pants, skirts, blouses, and shirts have fairly consistent sales, while things like shorts, sweater and outerwear are highly seasonal. On the other hand, dresses are a little harder to predict. Pricilla is hiring you to arrive at the best forecasting method for dresses. The following table contains three years of dress sales data Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Mont Dema Dema Dema h nd nd nd Jan 186 217 212 Feb 222 220 245 Mar 220 239 252 Apr 356 362 376 May 720 727 757 011 Jun 367 376 404 Jul 340 341 354 Aug 293 290 324 Sep 305 296 338 Oct 600 600 618 325 318 356 679 708 4613 4694 انال Nov Dec Total 713 4. 5. 4949 Using the dress data above, calculate the following 1. Forecast year 3 using a simple 3 period moving average 2. Forecast year 3 Calculate a forecast using the exponential smoothing method. Assume a = 0.20 3. (a) Using the information you have for years 1 & 2, calculate a monthly index. (b) Using year 1 and 2 data determine the slope and intercept of line equation using linear regression. Finally, calculate the new annual demand and forecast the monthly demand for year 3 Using the actual Year-3 numbers check your forecast accuracy, by calculating CFE, MSE, MAD, MAPE, and the tracking signal Finally, you are to indicate which forecasting technique is best and do an analysis of the shortcoming of each forecasting method, as indicated by the measure of forecast accuracy.
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
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