Problem 6-05 Consider the following time series data. Choose the correct time series plot. (i) (ii) (iii) (iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 3 16 4 11 fill in the blank 3 5 17 fill in the blank 4 6 14 fill in the blank 5 MSE: fill in the blank 6 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 7 Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18 2 13 fill in the blank 8 3 16 fill in the blank 9 4 11 fill in the blank 10 5 17 fill in the blank 11 6 14 fill in the blank 12 MSE: fill in the blank 13 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 14 Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Explain. The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Problem 6-05

Consider the following time series data.

Choose the correct time series plot.

(i) (ii)

(iii) (iv)

What type of pattern exists in the data?
Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Week Time Series
Value
Forecast

1 18

2 13

3 16

4 11 fill in the blank 3

5 17 fill in the blank 4

6 14 fill in the blank 5

MSE: fill in the blank 6

The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 7
Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.

Week Time Series
Value
Forecast

1 18

2 13 fill in the blank 8

3 16 fill in the blank 9

4 11 fill in the blank 10

5 17 fill in the blank 11

6 14 fill in the blank 12

MSE: fill in the blank 13

The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 14
Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

Explain.

The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.
Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.

Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
1	18
2	13
3	16
4	11	fill in the blank 3
5	17	fill in the blank 4
6	14	fill in the blank 5

Week	Time Series Value	Forecast
1	18
2	13	fill in the blank 8
3	16	fill in the blank 9
4	11	fill in the blank 10
5	17	fill in the blank 11
6	14	fill in the blank 12

What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
Time Series
Week
Value
Forecast
1
18
2
13
3
16
4
11
5
17
6
14
MSE:
The forecast for week 7:
c. Use a = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.
Time Series
Week
Value
Forecast
1
18
13

Problem 6-05
Consider the following time series data.
Week
1
4
5
6
Value
18
13
16
11
17
14
a. Choose the correct time series plot.
(i)
20
(ii)
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
6.
1
4
3
4
6
Week (t)
Week (t)
(ii)
20
(iv)
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
ilue
ilue

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