Problem 3 You have invited 64 guests to a party. You need to make sandwiches for the guests. You believe that a guest might need 0, 1 or 2 sandwiches with probabilities . , and respectively. You assume that the number of sandwiches each guest needs is independent from other guests. How many sandwiches should you make so that you are 95% sure that there is no shortage?
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- Charlie buys a one-year term home insurance policy for $p, that will pay $200,000 in the event of a major catastrophe and $35,000 in the event of a minor catastrophe. Charlie's home has a 0.2% chance of a major catastrophe and a 0.7% of a minor catastrophe during the one year term. What did the insurance company charge Charlie for this policy if the company expected to break even?In an amusement arcade there is a horse race with horses coloured red, yellow and green. Only one player can play this game at any time and the outcomes of each race are independent of previous races. You can either bet 10p or 20p. If you bet 10p then each horse is equally likely to win. If you bet 20p the corresponding probabilities are 50%, 30% and 20%, respectively. Three times as many people bet 10p as do 20p. Given red wins, what is the probability it had been a 20p bet? 0.333 0.300 0.313 0.298Suppose that Trendy Inc. products a style of a seasonal business suit, Sit-T-Slicker, which has a cost of $500 per unit. The demand during the season for Sit-T-Slicker is generally unknown and could be either: 200, 500, 800, 1100, and 1500 units with equal probabilities. Trendy sells the Sit-T-Slicker suit for $900 per unit during its three-month season, and for $300 per unit when sold after that time. Given the above data, what is the optimal order quantity for the Sit-T-Slicker? What is expected profit? Suppose the probabilities in part a change to 0.05, 0.25, 0.40, 0.25, 0.05 for demand levels 200, 500, 800, 1100, 1500, respectively. What is the optimal order quantity and expected profit in this case? How would better information regarding the demand for the Sit-T-Slicker suit change the data provided in this problem? How would this information affect the answers to part a? Explain.
- Suppose you are deciding whether or not to bring an umbrella to school and the weathercan be either sunny or rainy. Initially, you think the probability that it will be sunny isP (S) = 0.6, and the probability that it will be rainy is P (R) = 0.4. If you bring an umbrellaand it rains, your payoff is 6. If you bring an umbrella and it is sunny, your payoff is 9. Ifyou don’t bring an umbrella and it rains, your payoff is 0. If you don’t bring an umbrellaand it is sunny, your payoff is 10. Suppose that you check two websites for weather forecasts.You know that the two forecasts are independent of each other, and each forecast is correct70% of the time. That is, the probability that the website says it will be sunny given that itactually will be sunny is 0.7, and the probability that the website says it will rain given thatit actually will rain is 0.7. Suppose that you suffer from confirmation bias. You initially thinkit is more likely to be sunny, so you misinterpret rain forecasts as sun…You purchase a brand new car for $15,000 and insure it. The policy pays 78% of the car's value if there is an issue with the engine or 30% of the car's value if there is an issue with the speaker system. The probability of an issue with the engine is 0.009, and the probability there is an issue with the speaker system is 0.02. The premium for the policy is p. Let X be the insurance company's net gain from this policy. (a) Create a probability distribution for X, using p to represent the premium on the policy. Enter the possible values of X in ascending order from left to right. P(X) (b) Compute the minimum amount the insurance company will charge for this policy. Round your answer to the nearest cent(QUEEN'S SECRET AND GENIES) In old days, there was a queen and she had a secret problem to solve. To get an answer to her secret problem, the queen bought one female and one male genie lamps. The probabilities that her secret problem can be solved by the male and female genies are 0.3 and 0.4 respectively. A Queen looking for divine help. Assume the queen keeps the genies independently away from each other with a fear that both could not harm her, what is the probability that the queen's secret problem is solved by at least one of the genies? Note: Please keep accuracy upto two decimal places.
- Your probability professor has a tabby cat who sleeps 34% of the time and seems to respond to stimuli more or less randomly. If a human pets her when she’s awake, she will request more petting 8% of the time, food 38% of the time, and a game of fetch the rest of the time. If a human pets her when she’s asleep, she will request more petting 33% of the time, food 41% of the time, and a game of fetch the rest of the time. (You can assume that the humans don’t pet her disproportionally often when she’s awake.) • If the cat requests food when petted, what is the probability that she was asleep? • If the cat requests a game of fetch when petted, what is the probability that she was not asleep?Becky and Carla take an advanced yoga class. Becky can hold 29% of her poses for over a minute, while Carla can hold 35% of her poses for over a minute. Suppose each yoga student is asked to hold 50 poses. Let B the proportion of poses Becky can hold for over a minute and C = the proportion of poses Carla can hold for over a minute. What is the probability that Becky's proportion of poses held for over a minute is greater than Carla's? Find the z-table here. O 0.159 O 0,259 0 0.448 O 0,741 Save and Exit Next Submit Math and rem 96 & 7 8 9. 10Suppose an oil company is thinking of buying some land for $10,000,000. There is a 60%60% chance of economic growth and a 40%40% chance of recession. The probability of discovering oil is 44%44% when there is economic growth and 32%32% when there is a recession. If there is economic growth and the oil company discovers oil, the value of the land will triple. If they do not discover oil, the value of the land will decrease by 10%.10%. If there is a recession and the company discovers oil, the value of the land will increase by 50%.50%. If they do not discover oil, the land will decrease in value by 75%.75%. What is the expected value of the investment? Give your answer to the nearest dollar. Avoid rounding within calculations. $$ Select the correct interpretation of the expected value. The expected value represents what the actual investment value will be for this land purchase of $10,000,000. The company should make the investment because the expected value…
- Find P(A or B or C) for the given probabilities. P(A) = 0.34, P(B) = 0.25, P(C) = 0.16 P(A and B) = 0.11, P(A and C) = 0.03, P(B and C) = 0.07 P(A and B and C) = 0.01 P(A or B or C) =Please help!!! Q4. Ariana and Bella are playing a game. They each have 4 cards, which are numbered 1, 2, 3 and 4. Each shuffles her own cards and turns one over at random. If the cards show the same number, Ariana wins and Bella must pay Ariana $3. If the cards show different numbers, Bella wins and Ariana must pay Bella $1. By finding the probabilities of Ariana and Bella winning, show whether or not the game is fair.Betty is offered a bet where she can win $100 dollars with a 1/4 chance and she would lose X with a 3/4 chance. She feels indifferent between taking the bet or not, and considers herself risk neutral, so X must be about. $25 O $33 O $80 O $66
