uppose that you check two websites and see that both say it will be sunny. You know that the two forecasts are independent of each other, and each forecast is correct 70% of the time. That is, the probability that the website says it will be sunny given that it actually will be sunny is 0.7, and the probability that the website says it will rain given that it actually will rain is 0.7. If you are a Bayesian updater, what is your updated belief about the probability that it will be sunny? Do you bring your umbrella?
Suppose you are deciding whether or not to bring an umbrella to school and the weather can be either sunny or rainy. Initially, you think the
Suppose that you check two websites and see that both say it will be sunny. You know that the two forecasts are independent of each other, and each forecast is correct 70% of the time. That is, the probability that the website says it will be sunny given that it actually will be sunny is 0.7, and the probability that the website says it will rain given that it actually will rain is 0.7. If you are a Bayesian updater, what is your updated belief about the probability that it will be sunny? Do you bring your umbrella?
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