Problem #2b: It is believed that a trend, as well as seasonality, may be present in the data. To account for the trend, another multiple regression equation was computed using the quarter dummy variables and time period (t). Letting t = 1 refer to the observation in Quarter 1 of Year 1; t = 2 to refer to the observation in Quarter 2 of Year 1; ... and t = 12 to refer to the observation in Quarter 4 of Year 3. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.995376 R Square Adjusted R Square 0.990773 0.985501 Standard Error 89.82788 Observations 12 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 4 6065391.67 1516347.92 187.92 0.00000034 Residual 56483.33 8069.05 Total 11 6121875.00 ITIA Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 2306.67 82.00 28.13 0.000000018 Qtrl -642.29 77.11 -8.33 0.00007 Qtr2 -1465.42 75.04 -19.53 0.00000023 Qtr3 349.79 73.77 4.74 0.002104246 23.13 7.94 2.91 0.022577878 Based on this new multiple regression model, compute the four quarterly forecasts for next year using the above Excel output.
Problem #2b: It is believed that a trend, as well as seasonality, may be present in the data. To account for the trend, another multiple regression equation was computed using the quarter dummy variables and time period (t). Letting t = 1 refer to the observation in Quarter 1 of Year 1; t = 2 to refer to the observation in Quarter 2 of Year 1; ... and t = 12 to refer to the observation in Quarter 4 of Year 3. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.995376 R Square Adjusted R Square 0.990773 0.985501 Standard Error 89.82788 Observations 12 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 4 6065391.67 1516347.92 187.92 0.00000034 Residual 56483.33 8069.05 Total 11 6121875.00 ITIA Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 2306.67 82.00 28.13 0.000000018 Qtrl -642.29 77.11 -8.33 0.00007 Qtr2 -1465.42 75.04 -19.53 0.00000023 Qtr3 349.79 73.77 4.74 0.002104246 23.13 7.94 2.91 0.022577878 Based on this new multiple regression model, compute the four quarterly forecasts for next year using the above Excel output.
MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications
6th Edition
ISBN:9781119256830
Author:Amos Gilat
Publisher:Amos Gilat
Chapter1: Starting With Matlab
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1P
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