Problem #2b: It is believed that a trend, as well as seasonality, may be present in the data. To account for the trend, another multiple regression equation was computed using the quarter dummy variables and time period (t). Letting t = 1 refer to the observation in Quarter 1 of Year 1; t = 2 to refer to the observation in Quarter 2 of Year 1; ... and t = 12 to refer to the observation in Quarter 4 of Year 3. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.995376 R Square Adjusted R Square 0.990773 0.985501 Standard Error 89.82788 Observations 12 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 4 6065391.67 1516347.92 187.92 0.00000034 Residual 56483.33 8069.05 Total 11 6121875.00 ITIA Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 2306.67 82.00 28.13 0.000000018 Qtrl -642.29 77.11 -8.33 0.00007 Qtr2 -1465.42 75.04 -19.53 0.00000023 Qtr3 349.79 73.77 4.74 0.002104246 23.13 7.94 2.91 0.022577878 Based on this new multiple regression model, compute the four quarterly forecasts for next year using the above Excel output.

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Author:Amos Gilat
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Problem #2b:
It is believed that a trend, as well as seasonality, may be present in the data. To
account for the trend, another multiple regression equation was computed using
the quarter dummy variables and time period (t). Letting t = 1 refer to the
observation in Quarter 1 of Year 1; t = 2 to refer to the observation in Quarter 2 of
Year 1; ... and t = 12 to refer to the observation in Quarter 4 of Year 3.
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.995376
R Square
0.990773
Adjusted R Square
0.985501
Standard Error
89.82788
Observations
12
ANOVA
df
SS
MS
Significance F
F
Regression
4
6065391.67
1516347.92
187.92
0.00000034
Residual
56483.33
8069.05
Total
11
6121875.00
ITIA
Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value
Intercept
2306.67
82.00
28.13
0.000000018
Qtrl
-642.29
77.11
8.33
0.00007
Qtr2
-1465.42
75.04
-19.53
0.00000023
Qtr3
349.79
73.77
4.74
0.002104246
23.13
7.94
2.91
0.022577878
Based on this new multiple regression model, compute the four quarterly forecasts
for next year using the above Excel output.
Transcribed Image Text:Problem #2b: It is believed that a trend, as well as seasonality, may be present in the data. To account for the trend, another multiple regression equation was computed using the quarter dummy variables and time period (t). Letting t = 1 refer to the observation in Quarter 1 of Year 1; t = 2 to refer to the observation in Quarter 2 of Year 1; ... and t = 12 to refer to the observation in Quarter 4 of Year 3. SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.995376 R Square 0.990773 Adjusted R Square 0.985501 Standard Error 89.82788 Observations 12 ANOVA df SS MS Significance F F Regression 4 6065391.67 1516347.92 187.92 0.00000034 Residual 56483.33 8069.05 Total 11 6121875.00 ITIA Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 2306.67 82.00 28.13 0.000000018 Qtrl -642.29 77.11 8.33 0.00007 Qtr2 -1465.42 75.04 -19.53 0.00000023 Qtr3 349.79 73.77 4.74 0.002104246 23.13 7.94 2.91 0.022577878 Based on this new multiple regression model, compute the four quarterly forecasts for next year using the above Excel output.
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