Problem 1.27 State the exclusion-inclusion formula for P (U A,). A large and cheerful crowd of n junior wizards leave their staff in the Porter's Lodge on the way to a long night in the Mended Drum. On returning, each collects a staff at random from a pile, return to his room and attempts to cast a spell against hangovers. If a junior wizard attempts this spell with his own staff, there is a probability p that he will turn into a bullfrog. If he attempts it with someone else's staff, he is certain to turn into a bullfrog. Show that the probability that in the morning we will find n very surprised bullfrogs is approximately e-.

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Problem 1.27 State the exclusion-inclusion formula for P (U, A,).
A large and cheerful crowd of n junior wizards leave their staff in the Porter's Lodge
on the way to a long night in the Mended Drum. On returning, each collects a staff at
random from a pile, return to his room and attempts to cast a spell against hangovers. If
a junior wizard attempts this spell with his own staff, there is a probability p that he will
turn into a bullfrog. If he attempts it with someone else's staff, he is certain to turn into
a bullfrog. Show that the probability that in the morning we will find n very surprised
bullfrogs is approximately el-.
Transcribed Image Text:Problem 1.27 State the exclusion-inclusion formula for P (U, A,). A large and cheerful crowd of n junior wizards leave their staff in the Porter's Lodge on the way to a long night in the Mended Drum. On returning, each collects a staff at random from a pile, return to his room and attempts to cast a spell against hangovers. If a junior wizard attempts this spell with his own staff, there is a probability p that he will turn into a bullfrog. If he attempts it with someone else's staff, he is certain to turn into a bullfrog. Show that the probability that in the morning we will find n very surprised bullfrogs is approximately el-.
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