Problem 1: Another nearby town, Marketon, has so far avoided the disease. But its weekend market it coming up, and Etherly usually sends some merchants to market. Marketon doesn't want to refuse entirely (the apples from Etherly are a knockout) but also doesn't want to risk too much. They agree to allow three people from Etherly to bring the entire town's wares to Marketon for market. Obviously no one who's feeling sick will go. There are 300 adults who live in Etherly, including 50 are already feeling sick. Unfortunately, unknown to all of them (and to Marketon) there are 30 asymptomatic adult carriers of the disease in Etherly. How likely is it that one or more of the three people who travel to market in Marketon are asymptomatic carriers?

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Problem 1:

Another nearby town, Marketon, has so far avoided the disease. But its weekend market it coming up, and Etherly usually sends some merchants to market. Marketon doesn't want to refuse entirely (the apples from Etherly are a knockout) but also doesn't want to risk too much. They agree to allow three people from Etherly to bring the entire town's wares to Marketon for market. Obviously no one who's feeling sick will go.

There are 300 adults who live in Etherly, including 50 are already feeling sick. Unfortunately, unknown to all of them (and to Marketon) there are 30 asymptomatic adult carriers of the disease in Etherly. How likely is it that one or more of the three people who travel to market in Marketon are asymptomatic carriers?

 

Problem 2:

Unfortunately, it turns out that two of the three people from Etherly who are at market at Marketon are asymptomatic carriers of the disease. The sickness is passed with probability 0.04 per contact per day, the average length of infection is 7 days, and each person at the market interacts, on average, with 40 other people during a market day. There are 510 people at the market from Friday to Sunday. On Friday morning, no one but the two asymptomatic carriers from Etherly is infectious. How many infectious people do you expect there to be by the end of the weekend?

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