Consider three football teams A, B and C. In a regular game, A beats B with probability p and beatsC with probability q. C is a better team than B, so p > q. To win the tournament, A needs to wintwo games in a row out of three games against B and C, and it can’t play two games in a row againstthe same team. A can either select to play these three games as B − C − B or C − B − C. Showthat A maximizes the probability of winning the tournament by playing against the better team C,twice.

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Consider three football teams A, B and C. In a regular game, A beats B with probability p and beats
C with probability q. C is a better team than B, so p > q. To win the tournament, A needs to win
two games in a row out of three games against B and C, and it can’t play two games in a row against
the same team. A can either select to play these three games as B − C − B or C − B − C. Show
that A maximizes the probability of winning the tournament by playing against the better team C,
twice.

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