Pregnant women are screened for a birth defect called Down syndrome. Down syndrome babies are mentally and physically challenged. Some mothers choose to abort the fetus when they are certain that their baby will be born with the syndrome. The most common screening is maternal serum screening, a blood test that looks for markers in the blood to indicate whether the birth defect may occur. The false-positive and false-negative rates vary according to the age of the mother. Mother’s Age False-Positive Rate False-Negative Rate Under 30 0.040 0.376 30-34 0.082 0.290 35-37 0.178 0.269 Over 38 0.343 0.029 The probability that a baby has Down syndrome is primarily a function of the mother’s age. The probabilities are listed here. Age Probability of Down Syndrome 25 1/1300 30 1/900 35 1/350 40 1/100 45 1/25 49 1/12 For each of the age 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 and 49, determine the probability of Down syndrome if the maternity serum screening produces a positive result.
Pregnant women are screened for a birth defect called Down syndrome. Down syndrome babies are mentally and physically challenged. Some mothers choose to abort the fetus when they are certain that their baby will be born with the syndrome. The most common screening is maternal serum screening, a blood test that looks for markers in the blood to indicate whether the birth defect may occur. The false-positive and false-negative rates vary according to the age of the mother.
Mother’s Age False-Positive Rate False-Negative Rate
Under 30 0.040 0.376
30-34 0.082 0.290
35-37 0.178 0.269
Over 38 0.343 0.029
The
Age Probability of Down Syndrome
25 1/1300
30 1/900
35 1/350
40 1/100
45 1/25
49 1/12
For each of the age 25, 30, 35, 40, 45 and 49, determine the probability of Down syndrome if the maternity serum screening produces a positive result.
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