Practice 2. The Monty Hall Problem is a probability puzzle originally posed by Steve Selvin. It is loosely based on the game show Deal or No Deal and is named after its host, Monty Hall. The problem is as follows. Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 2, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 3?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? (Whitaker, 1990, as quoted by vos Savant 1990a) For i = 1, 2, 3, let C₁ = {the car is behind the ith door} and O; = {Monty opens the ith door}. (a) Assuming you picked the first door, find P(C₁ | O₂) and P(C3 | O2), and then compare the two probabilities. Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

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Practice 2. The Monty Hall Problem is a probability puzzle originally posed by Steve Selvin.
It is loosely based on the game show Deal or No Deal and is named after its host, Monty
Hall. The problem is as follows.
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door
is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows
what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 2, which has a goat. He then says
to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 3?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
(Whitaker, 1990, as quoted by vos Savant 1990a)
For i = 1, 2, 3, let C₁ = {the car is behind the ith door} and O₁ = {Monty opens the ith door}.
(a) Assuming you picked the first door, find P(C₁ | O₂) and P(C3 | O₂), and then compare
the two probabilities. Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
Transcribed Image Text:Practice 2. The Monty Hall Problem is a probability puzzle originally posed by Steve Selvin. It is loosely based on the game show Deal or No Deal and is named after its host, Monty Hall. The problem is as follows. Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 2, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 3?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice? (Whitaker, 1990, as quoted by vos Savant 1990a) For i = 1, 2, 3, let C₁ = {the car is behind the ith door} and O₁ = {Monty opens the ith door}. (a) Assuming you picked the first door, find P(C₁ | O₂) and P(C3 | O₂), and then compare the two probabilities. Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
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