Personnel planning is an important function for many firms. Consider a company’s department with a desired headcount of 100 positions. Suppose that employees leave their positions at a rate of 3.4 per month, and that it requires an average of 4 months for the firm to fill open positions. Analysis of past data shows that the number of employees leaving the firm per month has the Poisson distribution, and that the time required to fill positions follows Weibull distribution. What is the probability that there are more than 15 positions unfilled at any point in time? How many jobs within the department are filled on average? How many positions should the firm have in order for the head count of working employees to be 100 on average?

Understanding Business
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ISBN:9781259929434
Author:William Nickels
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Chapter1: Taking Risks And Making Profits Within The Dynamic Business Environment
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Personnel planning is an important function for many firms. Consider a company’s department with a desired headcount of 100 positions. Suppose that employees leave their positions at a rate of 3.4 per month, and that it requires an average of 4 months for the firm to fill open positions. Analysis of past data shows that the number of employees leaving the firm per month has the Poisson distribution, and that the time required to fill positions follows Weibull distribution. What is the probability that there are more than 15 positions unfilled at any point in time? How many jobs within the department are filled on average? How many positions should the firm have in order for the head count of working employees to be 100 on average?

Expert Solution
Step 1 - Introduction

Given data is

Desired headcount = 100 

Leave rate(arrival rate) = 3.4 per month

Filling rate(service rate) = 4 months

Step 2 - Solution for question 1 and 2

The given problem is an M/G/infinite queue model because after the employee leaves the company and the search for a new employee starts immediately and the accurate model I would have infinite servers. 

The expected number of positions unfilled is

M=λμM=3.414M=3.4×4M=13.6

N=100-13.6N=86.4 

Now, the probability of more than fifteen unfilled positions is Poisson variable(random) such that mean of 13.6 exceeds 15. From the table of cumulative Poisson probabilities, one can find the corresponding value of 0.29.

Hence, the probability that there are more than 15 positions unfilled is 0.29 and there are 86.4 jobs filled on average in the department.

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