Over the past 14 months,the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time are Monthy Proportion of On Tme Shipments 72 81 78 90 83 85 90 82 89 81 85 84 78 88 What is MSE using exponential smoothing forecast for α=0.3? (keep 2 decimal points)

Over the past 14 months,the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time are Monthy Proportion of On Tme Shipments 72 81 78 90 83 85 90 82 89 81 85 84 78 88 What is MSE using exponential smoothing forecast for α=0.3? (keep 2 decimal points)

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Need only handwritten solution only (not typed one).
Suppose sales for the past 6 months have been94, 91, 102, 99, 109, and 118 Using a smoothing coefficient of 0.7, what is the exponentially smoothed value for the 4th period? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)
The monthly percentages of all shipments received on time are Monthy Proportion of On Time Shipments 72 81 78 90 83 85 90 82 89 81 85 84 78 88 Using the better method (4 month moving average or exponential smoothing with α=0.3), what is the forecast for next month? (round up to the nearest integer if your answer is not an integer)
Data can be approximated quite well by a N(3.4, 3.1) model. Economists become alarmed when productivity decreases. According to the normal model what is the probability that the percent change in worker output per hour from the previous quarter is more than 1.6 standard deviations below the mean? What is the probability that the percent change in worker output from the previous quarter is between -1.56 and 4.33?
Suppose sales for the past 6 months have been82, 104, 107, 116, 92, and 116 Using a smoothing coefficient of 0.5, what is the exponentially smoothed value for the 3rd period? (please round your answer to 1 decimal place)
The figure below illustrates monthly data over 10 years. What method would you expect would perform the best at forecasting the data series in period 121? Explain the (i) strengths of your selected method for this data and the (ii) weaknesses of alternative methods for this data. Consider the concepts of level, seasonality, trend, and noise in your answer.
Here's a table with average monthly price of a stock from Jan 2021-July 2021. Month Price Jan 29000 Feb 27000 Mar 31000 Apr 30000 May 32000 June 28000 July 29000 Using a 3-period weighted moving average with weights (wt, wt-1, W-2) = (0.6, 0.2, 0.2), the predicted price August is Using an exponential smoothing model with = 0.4, and with the initial predicted price for Jan the same as the observed price for January, the predicted price for August is % Now, let's suppose that we finally observe that the price for August is 30000. The absolute percent error (APE) of your prediction for August is using the weighted moving average method and % using the exponential smoothing model. (Note: Round your answer to the nearest 2 decimal places. For your APE answer for example let's say you get 0.06786 from Excel, then you should type-in 6.79 as your answer here since it is represented as percentage. Do not enter any symbols other than integers and decimal.)
Explain the various concepts & tools of regression with time series data?
Please see attached image, I need to create a table showing an exponential smoothing average using the alpha as 0.2 and an assumed forecast for Janaury of year one of 35,000.