Organizing a fundraiser is a tough job, but calculating probabilities can improve your chances of getting pledges and donations. Let's look at the expected values, or empirical data. From the previous years’ donor lists, you have probability information about: the types of donors whether they pledged on the phone whether they actually donated The types of donors on your calling list and their probabilities are: gave last year (L), 60% gave in the past but not last year (P), 20% new contacts (N), 20% You can also make these assumptions based on information about past and prospective donors: Of last year's donors, 50% will pledge again and 80% of them will actually send the donation. Of past donors, 40% will pledge again and 60% of them will actually donate. Of new contacts, 10% pledge and 50% of them actually donate. The average amount pledged to your organization is: $280 from those who gave last year $160 from those who gave in the past but not last year $145 from new contacts Use this information to answer these questions. Question 1 Make a tree diagram or use conditional probabilities to calculate the probability of getting a donation from a donor of each type. COMPLETED THIS QUESTION Question 2 Now that you’ve calculated the probabilities, use them to calculate the expected value per contact. Note: You can further classify people in each category by their inclination to donate and their actual actions. For example, the category of those who donated last year will have three groups: people who will not pledge, people who will pledge but not donate, and people who will pledge and donate. Use the breakdown you get from this classification to find the probabilities in each group. Answer : Gave last year (L) = 60% Gave in the past but not last year (P) = 20% New contacts (N) = 20% COMPLETED THIS QUESTION Question 3 You want to raise $200,00. How many contacts do you have to make based on the expected value of each type of contact? The expected value per contact is $76.33. To find the number of contacts, divide $200,000 by the value per contact: 200,000/76.33 = 2,620.20. Rounding up, it will take 2,621 contacts to raise $200,000. COMPLETED THIS QUESTION Question 4 What is the expected value per contact if the average amount given by donors who gave last year goes up by $400 (to $680)? Need help with this question.

Organizing a fundraiser is a tough job, but calculating probabilities can improve your chances of getting pledges and donations. Let's look at the expected values, or empirical data. From the previous years’ donor lists, you have probability information about: the types of donors whether they pledged on the phone whether they actually donated The types of donors on your calling list and their probabilities are: gave last year (L), 60% gave in the past but not last year (P), 20% new contacts (N), 20% You can also make these assumptions based on information about past and prospective donors: Of last year's donors, 50% will pledge again and 80% of them will actually send the donation. Of past donors, 40% will pledge again and 60% of them will actually donate. Of new contacts, 10% pledge and 50% of them actually donate. The average amount pledged to your organization is: $280 from those who gave last year $160 from those who gave in the past but not last year $145 from new contacts Use this information to answer these questions. Question 1 Make a tree diagram or use conditional probabilities to calculate the probability of getting a donation from a donor of each type. COMPLETED THIS QUESTION Question 2 Now that you’ve calculated the probabilities, use them to calculate the expected value per contact. Note: You can further classify people in each category by their inclination to donate and their actual actions. For example, the category of those who donated last year will have three groups: people who will not pledge, people who will pledge but not donate, and people who will pledge and donate. Use the breakdown you get from this classification to find the probabilities in each group. Answer : Gave last year (L) = 60% Gave in the past but not last year (P) = 20% New contacts (N) = 20% COMPLETED THIS QUESTION Question 3 You want to raise $200,00. How many contacts do you have to make based on the expected value of each type of contact? The expected value per contact is $76.33. To find the number of contacts, divide $200,000 by the value per contact: 200,000/76.33 = 2,620.20. Rounding up, it will take 2,621 contacts to raise $200,000. COMPLETED THIS QUESTION Question 4 What is the expected value per contact if the average amount given by donors who gave last year goes up by $400 (to $680)? Need help with this question.

MATLAB: An Introduction with Applications

6th Edition

ISBN:9781119256830

Author:Amos Gilat

Publisher:Amos Gilat

Chapter1: Starting With Matlab

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1P

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Question 1

Make a tree diagram or use conditional probabilities to calculate the probability of getting a donation from a donor of each type.

COMPLETED THIS QUESTION

Question 2

Now that you’ve calculated the probabilities, use them to calculate the expected value per contact. Note: You can further classify people in each category by their inclination to donate and their actual actions. For example, the category of those who donated last year will have three groups: people who will not pledge, people who will pledge but not donate, and people who will pledge and donate. Use the breakdown you get from this classification to find the probabilities in each group.

Answer :

Gave last year (L) = 60%
Gave in the past but not last year (P) = 20%
New contacts (N) = 20%

COMPLETED THIS QUESTION

Question 3

You want to raise $200,00. How many contacts do you have to make based on the expected value of each type of contact?

The expected value per contact is $76.33. To find the number of contacts, divide $200,000 by the value per contact: 200,000/76.33 = 2,620.20. Rounding up, it will take 2,621 contacts to raise $200,000.

COMPLETED THIS QUESTION