Organizing a fundraiser is a tough job, but calculating probabilities can improve your chances of getting pledges and donations. Let's look at the expected values, or empirical data. From the previous years’ donor lists, you have probability information about: the ty
Organizing a fundraiser is a tough job, but calculating probabilities can improve your chances of getting pledges and donations. Let's look at the
From the previous years’ donor lists, you have
- the types of donors
- whether they pledged on the phone
- whether they actually donated
The types of donors on your calling list and their probabilities are:
- gave last year (L), 60%
- gave in the past but not last year (P), 20%
- new contacts (N), 20%
You can also make these assumptions based on information about past and prospective donors:
- Of last year's donors, 50% will pledge again and 80% of them will actually send the donation.
- Of past donors, 40% will pledge again and 60% of them will actually donate.
- Of new contacts, 10% pledge and 50% of them actually donate.
The average amount pledged to your organization is:
- $280 from those who gave last year
- $160 from those who gave in the past but not last year
- $145 from new contacts
Use this information to answer these questions.
Make a tree diagram or use conditional probabilities to calculate the probability of getting a donation from a donor of each type.
Now that you’ve calculated the probabilities, use them to calculate the expected value per contact. Note: You can further classify people in each category by their inclination to donate and their actual actions. For example, the category of those who donated last year will have three groups:people who will not pledge, people who will pledge but not donate, and people who will pledge and donate. Use the breakdown you get from this classification to find the probabilities in each group.
Now that you’ve calculated the probabilities, use them to calculate the expected value per contact. Note: You can further classify people in each category by their inclination to donate and their actual actions. For example, the category of those who donated last year will have three groups:people who will not pledge, people who will pledge but not donate, and people who will pledge and donate. Use the breakdown you get from this classification to find the probabilities in each group.
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