On a specific mission, it was determined that the success of an attack to a given system would be only possible if at least one of the vulnerabilities get successfully exploited. After some initial simulations conducted on a network that is similar to the target the following probabilities of successful exploitation were: - 30% of the time the IPs of the key components were captured - 10% of the time the MACs of the key components were captured - 40% of the time the Ports giving access to the target network were captured - 65% of the time the OS versions of the main components were obtained - 50% of the time the key services needed for the attack were compromised The attack would be deployed only if a breach was obtained within the allocated time frame. The mechanisms by which each of the above impacts the attack were also tested and proved to be independent on how they actuate. The experiments showed that knowing the IPs would allow a successful attack 25% of the time, while knowing the ports would double that estimate. Capturing the MACs would result on a 60% chance of a successful attack, while obtaining the OS versions would only result in a successful attack 15% of the time. Finally, compromising the services resulted in a successful attack 70% of the time. With the above information, draw a Bayesian network and answer the following questions: What is the probability of success when only the Ips and MACs were captured? What is of success when all of the above where captured? After more tests, it was observed that even when none of the above were captured/compromised, the attack was still successful on 1% of the experiment. Build a new model that captures these results and respond the following questions: What is the probability of success when only the Ips and MACs were captured? What is the probability of success when all of the above where captured?
On a specific mission, it was determined that the success of an attack to a given system would be only possible if at least one of the vulnerabilities get successfully exploited. After some initial simulations conducted on a network that is similar to the target the following probabilities of
successful exploitation were:
- 30% of the time the IPs of the key components were captured
- 10% of the time the MACs of the key components were captured
- 40% of the time the Ports giving access to the target network were captured
- 65% of the time the OS versions of the main components were obtained
- 50% of the time the key services needed for the attack were compromised
The attack would be deployed only if a breach was obtained within the allocated time frame. The
successful attack 25% of the time, while knowing the ports would double that estimate. Capturing the MACs would result on a 60% chance of a successful attack, while obtaining the OS versions would only result in a successful attack 15% of the time. Finally, compromising the services resulted in a successful attack 70% of the time.
With the above information, draw a Bayesian network and answer the following questions:
- What is the probability of success when only the Ips and MACs were captured?
- What is of success when all of the above where captured?
After more tests, it was observed that even when none of the above were captured/compromised, the attack was still successful on 1% of the experiment. Build a new model that captures these results and respond the following questions:
- What is the probability of success when only the Ips and MACs were captured?
- What is the probability of success when all of the above where captured?
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