oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high-quality oil) = .50 P(medium-quality oil) = .20 P(no oil) = .30 What is the probability of finding oil (to 1 decimal)? .7 After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test follow. P(soil | high-quality oil) = .20 P(soil | medium-quality oil) = .80 P(soil | no oil) = .20 Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 2 decimals). P(high-quality oil | soil) .50 P(medium-quality oil | soil) .80 P(no oil | soil) .20 What is the new probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)? What quality oil is most likely to be found, according to the revised probabilities? Select

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An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities.
P(high-quality oil) = .50
P(medium-quality oil)
= .20
P(no oil) = .30
a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 1 decimal)?
.7
b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by
the test follow.
P(soil | high-quality oil) = .20
P(soil | medium-quality oil) = .80
P(soil | no oil) = .20
Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 2 decimals).
P(high-quality oil | soil)
.50
P(medium-quality oil | soil)
.80
P(no oil | soil)
.20
What is the new probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)?
What quality oil is most likely to be found, according to the revised probabilities?
Select
Transcribed Image Text:An oil company purchased an option on land in Alaska. Preliminary geologic studies assigned the following prior probabilities. P(high-quality oil) = .50 P(medium-quality oil) = .20 P(no oil) = .30 a. What is the probability of finding oil (to 1 decimal)? .7 b. After 200 feet of drilling on the first well, a soil test is taken. The probabilities of finding the particular type of soil identified by the test follow. P(soil | high-quality oil) = .20 P(soil | medium-quality oil) = .80 P(soil | no oil) = .20 Given the soil found in the test, use Bayes' theorem to compute the following revised probabilities (to 2 decimals). P(high-quality oil | soil) .50 P(medium-quality oil | soil) .80 P(no oil | soil) .20 What is the new probability of finding oil (to 2 decimals)? What quality oil is most likely to be found, according to the revised probabilities? Select
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