nsurance risk analyst, it is your job to research risk profiles for various types of drivers. One common area of concern for auto in volved when offering policies to younger, less experienced drivers. The U.S. Department of Transportation recently conducted a e relationship between 1) the number of fatal accidents per 1000 licenses, and 2) the percentage of licensed drivers under the a ep in the analysis is to construct a scatterplot of the data. CATTERPLOT FOR U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORATION PROBLEM U.S. Department of Transportation The Relationship Between Fatal Accident Frequency and Driver Age .... .. . ..

ENGR.ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
14th Edition
ISBN:9780190931919
Author:NEWNAN
Publisher:NEWNAN
Chapter1: Making Economics Decisions
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**Text Transcription and Overview of Graphs**

As an auto insurance risk analyst, it is your job to research risk profiles for various types of drivers. One common area of concern for auto insurance companies is the risk involved when offering policies to younger, less experienced drivers. The U.S. Department of Transportation recently conducted a study in which it analyzed the relationship between 1) the number of fatal accidents per 1000 licenses, and 2) the percentage of licensed drivers under the age of 21 in a sample of 42 cities.

Your first step in the analysis is to construct a scatterplot of the data.

**FIGURE: Scatterplot for U.S. Department of Transportation Problem**

*Graph Description:*
The scatterplot from the U.S. Department of Transportation illustrates the relationship between fatal accident frequency and driver age. The x-axis represents the percentage of drivers under age 21, ranging from 6% to 20%. The y-axis represents the number of fatal accidents per 1000 licenses, ranging from 0 to 4.5. The scatterplot shows a positive trend, suggesting that as the percentage of younger drivers increases, the number of fatal accidents also tends to increase.

Upon visual inspection, you determine that the variables do have a linear relationship. After a linear pattern has been established visually, you now proceed with performing linear regression analysis. The results are as follows:

**TABLE: Linear Regression Output for U.S. Department of Transportation Problem**

| Coefficients     | Standard Error | t Statistic | p-value |
|------------------|----------------|-------------|---------|
| Intercept        | -1.5974        | 0.3717      | -4.2979 | 0.0001  |
| Percent Under 21 | 0.2871         | 0.0294      | 9.7671  | 0.0000  |

This table provides the linear regression coefficients and statistics. The intercept is -1.5974, while the coefficient for the percentage of drivers under 21 is 0.2871. The low p-values (0.0001 and 0.0000) indicate statistically significant relationships.
Transcribed Image Text:**Text Transcription and Overview of Graphs** As an auto insurance risk analyst, it is your job to research risk profiles for various types of drivers. One common area of concern for auto insurance companies is the risk involved when offering policies to younger, less experienced drivers. The U.S. Department of Transportation recently conducted a study in which it analyzed the relationship between 1) the number of fatal accidents per 1000 licenses, and 2) the percentage of licensed drivers under the age of 21 in a sample of 42 cities. Your first step in the analysis is to construct a scatterplot of the data. **FIGURE: Scatterplot for U.S. Department of Transportation Problem** *Graph Description:* The scatterplot from the U.S. Department of Transportation illustrates the relationship between fatal accident frequency and driver age. The x-axis represents the percentage of drivers under age 21, ranging from 6% to 20%. The y-axis represents the number of fatal accidents per 1000 licenses, ranging from 0 to 4.5. The scatterplot shows a positive trend, suggesting that as the percentage of younger drivers increases, the number of fatal accidents also tends to increase. Upon visual inspection, you determine that the variables do have a linear relationship. After a linear pattern has been established visually, you now proceed with performing linear regression analysis. The results are as follows: **TABLE: Linear Regression Output for U.S. Department of Transportation Problem** | Coefficients | Standard Error | t Statistic | p-value | |------------------|----------------|-------------|---------| | Intercept | -1.5974 | 0.3717 | -4.2979 | 0.0001 | | Percent Under 21 | 0.2871 | 0.0294 | 9.7671 | 0.0000 | This table provides the linear regression coefficients and statistics. The intercept is -1.5974, while the coefficient for the percentage of drivers under 21 is 0.2871. The low p-values (0.0001 and 0.0000) indicate statistically significant relationships.
**Educational Text on Linear Regression Analysis**

Upon visual inspection, you determine that the variables do have a linear relationship. After a linear pattern has been established visually, you now proceed with performing linear regression analysis. The results are as follows:

**TABLE. LINEAR REGRESSION OUTPUT FOR U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROBLEM**

| Coefficients       | Standard Error | t Statistic | p-value |
|--------------------|----------------|-------------|---------|
| Intercept          | -1.5974        | 0.3717      | -4.2979 | 0.0001  |
| Percent Under 21   | 0.2871         | 0.0294      | 9.7671  | 0.0000  |

The p-value for "Percent under 21" in the regression output is \( p = 0.0000 \). The t-test for significance in simple linear regression is:

- \( H_0: \beta_1 = 0 \)
- \( H_a: \beta_1 \neq 0 \)

**Use alpha = 0.05. What does the p-value tell you about the estimated regression line?**

- \( p = 0.0000 \) indicates that the slope of the estimated regression line is not zero, a significant relationship exists between the two variables, and \( H_0 \) should be rejected.

**Explanation of Graph:**

The scatter plot in the image displays the relationship between the "Percentage of drivers under age 21" and the "Fatal accidents per 100,000 drivers." A positive correlation is evident, suggesting that as the percentage of young drivers increases, the number of fatal accidents also increases. This visual observation is supported by the linear regression analysis findings.

Linear regression analysis helps to quantify the strength and type of relationship between two variables, providing critical insights for decision-making and policy formulation.
Transcribed Image Text:**Educational Text on Linear Regression Analysis** Upon visual inspection, you determine that the variables do have a linear relationship. After a linear pattern has been established visually, you now proceed with performing linear regression analysis. The results are as follows: **TABLE. LINEAR REGRESSION OUTPUT FOR U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION PROBLEM** | Coefficients | Standard Error | t Statistic | p-value | |--------------------|----------------|-------------|---------| | Intercept | -1.5974 | 0.3717 | -4.2979 | 0.0001 | | Percent Under 21 | 0.2871 | 0.0294 | 9.7671 | 0.0000 | The p-value for "Percent under 21" in the regression output is \( p = 0.0000 \). The t-test for significance in simple linear regression is: - \( H_0: \beta_1 = 0 \) - \( H_a: \beta_1 \neq 0 \) **Use alpha = 0.05. What does the p-value tell you about the estimated regression line?** - \( p = 0.0000 \) indicates that the slope of the estimated regression line is not zero, a significant relationship exists between the two variables, and \( H_0 \) should be rejected. **Explanation of Graph:** The scatter plot in the image displays the relationship between the "Percentage of drivers under age 21" and the "Fatal accidents per 100,000 drivers." A positive correlation is evident, suggesting that as the percentage of young drivers increases, the number of fatal accidents also increases. This visual observation is supported by the linear regression analysis findings. Linear regression analysis helps to quantify the strength and type of relationship between two variables, providing critical insights for decision-making and policy formulation.
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