multiplication rule    Medical test example.   A medical test has been developed to test for a certain condition.   The outcomes of this test are not perfect, but reasonably accurate.   The probability of a positive or negative result depends on whether the individual actually has the condition or not, and will be given as a conditional probability.       p( + | condition ) = 0.95   p( - | condition ) = 0.05   p( - | not condition) = .90   p( +| not condition) = 0.10     Find the probability of each of the four possible outcomes if 20% of those tested have this condition

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Author:Sheldon Ross
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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multiplication rule 

 

Medical test example.

 

A medical test has been developed to test for a certain condition.  

The outcomes of this test are not perfect, but reasonably accurate.  

The probability of a positive or negative result depends on whether the individual actually has the condition or not, and will be given as a conditional probability.  

 

 

p( + | condition ) = 0.95

 

p( - | condition ) = 0.05

 

p( - | not condition) = .90

 

p( +| not condition) = 0.10

 

 

Find the probability of each of the four possible outcomes if 20% of those tested have this condition.

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