Medical tests sometimes produce incorrect results. When a test is designed to determine whether a patient has a certain disease, a false positive result indicates that a patient has the disease when the patient does not have it. A false negative result indicated that a patient does not have the disease when the patient does have it. Consider a large-scale medical test that screens for a disease where there were 5 cases in 1000 people of the population. It is known that the test has a false positive rate of 3% and a false negative rate of 1%. (a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen person who tests positive for the disease actually has the disease? (b) What is the probability that a randomly chosen person who tests negative for the disease does not indeed have the disease?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
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Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
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Medical tests sometimes produce incorrect
results. When a test is designed to determine
whether a patient has a certain disease, a false
positive result indicates that a patient has the
disease when the patient does not have it. A
false negative result indicated that a patient
does not have the disease when the patient
does have it. Consider a large-scale medical test
that screens for a disease where there were 5
cases in 1000 people of the population. It is
known that the test has a false positive rate of
3% and a false negative rate of 1%.
(a) What is the probability that a randomly
chosen person who tests positive for the
disease actually has the disease?
(b) What is the probability that a randomly
chosen person who tests negative for the
disease does not indeed have the disease?
Transcribed Image Text:Medical tests sometimes produce incorrect results. When a test is designed to determine whether a patient has a certain disease, a false positive result indicates that a patient has the disease when the patient does not have it. A false negative result indicated that a patient does not have the disease when the patient does have it. Consider a large-scale medical test that screens for a disease where there were 5 cases in 1000 people of the population. It is known that the test has a false positive rate of 3% and a false negative rate of 1%. (a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen person who tests positive for the disease actually has the disease? (b) What is the probability that a randomly chosen person who tests negative for the disease does not indeed have the disease?
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