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Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 21 7,286 22 7,498 6,386 23 24 4,209 Jul-11 25 4,825 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 26 3,764 7,066 7,015 9,535 8,278 27 28 29 30 31 8,773 32 8,393 8,288 8,432 7,455 33 Apr-12 lay 12 lun-12 34 35 36 5.346

Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 21 7,286 22 7,498 6,386 23 24 4,209 Jul-11 25 4,825 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 26 3,764 7,066 7,015 9,535 8,278 27 28 29 30 31 8,773 32 8,393 8,288 8,432 7,455 33 Apr-12 lay 12 lun-12 34 35 36 5.346

Database System Concepts
Database System Concepts
7th Edition
ISBN:9780078022159
Author:Abraham Silberschatz Professor, Henry F. Korth, S. Sudarshan
Publisher:Abraham Silberschatz Professor, Henry F. Korth, S. Sudarshan
Chapter1: Introduction
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1PE
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Description: A Chinese pharmaceutical company supplies its most popular dnug to its sole distributor in Hong Kong on a monthly basis. Shipments usually take 6-8 weeks and contractual agreements are initiated in July of each year. At the end of June 2012, the company gathers its past sales data from its Hong Kong market for the last 36 months in order to ereate forecasts for the upcoming year. 4. Compare the forecasting methods discussed in Questions 1-3 in order to identify the best forecasting method among them. For this question, compute MAE, RMSE, and MAPE under these methods and compare the corresponding values. What is the best forecasting method? Hint: You don't have to consider methods that are redundant in your comparison.
Transcribed Image Text:Description: A Chinese pharmaceutical company supplies its most popular dnug to its sole distributor in Hong Kong on a monthly basis. Shipments usually take 6-8 weeks and contractual agreements are initiated in July of each year. At the end of June 2012, the company gathers its past sales data from its Hong Kong market for the last 36 months in order to ereate forecasts for the upcoming year. 4. Compare the forecasting methods discussed in Questions 1-3 in order to identify the best forecasting method among them. For this question, compute MAE, RMSE, and MAPE under these methods and compare the corresponding values. What is the best forecasting method? Hint: You don't have to consider methods that are redundant in your comparison.
A. 1 MM-YY Period Sales t A Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 3 1 3,924 2,619 6,920 5,676 8,348 6,044 6,877 6,535 6,395 6,684 5,414 3,180 4,350 3,175 6,935 6,356 8,919 15 6. 4 6. Jan-10 10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 11 12 10 13 11 14 12 15 Jul-10 13 Aug-10 17 16 14 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 15 18 16 19 17 20 Dec-10 18 7,146 7,763 7,397 7,286 7,498 6,386 21 Jan-11 19 22 Feb-11 20 23 Mar-11 21 24 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 22 25 23 26 24 4,209 4,825 27 Jul-11 25 Aug-11 Sep-11 30 28 26 3,764 7,066 7,015 29 27 Oct-11 28 31 Nov-11 29 9,535 8,278 8,773 8,393 32 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 30 33 31 34 32 35 Mar-12 33 8,288 36 Apr-12 34 8,432 Мay-12 37 35 7.455 5,346 38 Jun-12 36 78
Transcribed Image Text:A. 1 MM-YY Period Sales t A Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 3 1 3,924 2,619 6,920 5,676 8,348 6,044 6,877 6,535 6,395 6,684 5,414 3,180 4,350 3,175 6,935 6,356 8,919 15 6. 4 6. Jan-10 10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 11 12 10 13 11 14 12 15 Jul-10 13 Aug-10 17 16 14 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 15 18 16 19 17 20 Dec-10 18 7,146 7,763 7,397 7,286 7,498 6,386 21 Jan-11 19 22 Feb-11 20 23 Mar-11 21 24 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 22 25 23 26 24 4,209 4,825 27 Jul-11 25 Aug-11 Sep-11 30 28 26 3,764 7,066 7,015 29 27 Oct-11 28 31 Nov-11 29 9,535 8,278 8,773 8,393 32 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 30 33 31 34 32 35 Mar-12 33 8,288 36 Apr-12 34 8,432 Мay-12 37 35 7.455 5,346 38 Jun-12 36 78
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