Many institutes, departments, and recruitment committees are using citations as part of the assessment process involved in making new appointments. By going through scientific databases like Scopus selection panels can check if a candidate’s work is making an impact by being cited by other researchers in their field. How does the scientific community measure how "good" or "great" a journal or an author is? How do you determine the "impact" of an author's work? The most 2 common metric to track an author's impact is ask how often they are cited. The following table presents the number of citation on research publications of two Management Science professors over a period of 17 years, 2005 to 2021, data taken from Google Scholar. The objective of this assignment is to find a suitable forecasting method (moving average, exponential smoothing, and/or simple linear regression model) to predict near future citation of a researcher. (a) For each professor, develop a scatter diagram on his citation. Explain your findings. (b) For each professor, apply the exponential smoothing as your forecasting method with five different values of smoothing parameter. Which smoothing parameter provides the best forecasts for each researcher ? Justify your answer.
Many institutes, departments, and recruitment committees are using
citations as part of the assessment process involved in making new
appointments. By going through scientific databases like Scopus
selection panels can check if a candidate’s work is making an impact by
being cited by other researchers in their field. How does the scientific
community measure how "good" or "great" a journal or an author is?
How do you determine the "impact" of an author's work? The most
2
common metric to track an author's impact is ask how often they are
cited. The following table presents the number of citation on research
publications of two Management Science professors over a period of 17
years, 2005 to 2021, data taken from Google Scholar. The objective of
this assignment is to find a suitable forecasting method (moving
average, exponential smoothing, and/or simple linear regression model)
to predict near future citation of a researcher.
(a) For each professor, develop a
Explain your findings.
(b) For each professor, apply the exponential smoothing as your
forecasting method with five different values of smoothing parameter.
Which smoothing parameter provides the best forecasts for each
researcher ? Justify your answer.
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