Many institutes, departments, and recruitment committees are using citations as part of the assessment process involved in making new appointments. By going through scientific databases like Scopus selection panels can check if a candidate’s work is making an impact by being cited by other researchers in their field. How does the scientific community measure how "good" or "great" a journal or an author is? How do you determine the "impact" of an author's work? The most common metric to track an author's impact is ask how often they are cited. The following table presents the number of citation on research publications of two Management Science professors over a period of 17 years, 2005 to 2021, data taken from Google Scholar. The objective of this assignment is to find a suitable forecasting method (moving average, exponential smoothing, and/or simple linear regression model) to predict near future citation of a researcher. (c) To predict the number of citation, does a linear regression model appear to be appropriate? If so, for which researcher? Justify your answer. (d) Use the most appropriate forecasting method, from your work in parts b and c, to predict the number of citation of each researcher in 2022 and 2023? Justify your answer.
Many institutes, departments, and recruitment committees are using
citations as part of the assessment process involved in making new
appointments. By going through scientific databases like Scopus
selection panels can check if a candidate’s work is making an impact by
being cited by other researchers in their field. How does the scientific
community measure how "good" or "great" a journal or an author is?
How do you determine the "impact" of an author's work? The most
common metric to track an author's impact is ask how often they are
cited. The following table presents the number of citation on research
publications of two Management Science professors over a period of 17
years, 2005 to 2021, data taken from Google Scholar. The objective of
this assignment is to find a suitable forecasting method (moving
average, exponential smoothing, and/or simple linear regression model)
to predict near future citation of a researcher.
(c) To predict the number of citation, does a linear regression model
appear to be appropriate? If so, for which researcher? Justify your
answer.
(d) Use the most appropriate forecasting method, from your work in
parts b and c, to predict the number of citation of each researcher in
2022 and 2023? Justify your answer.
Step by step
Solved in 8 steps with 2 images
