Management is uncomfortable stating probabilities for the states of nature for a trade bill passing. Depending on its probability they will invest in one of three countries; A, B, or C. Let p denote the probability of the bill passing. A B C p >0.7619 p <0.6234 p <0.4545 Trade Bill Passes p>0.4545 p < 0.7619 320 260 370 Trade Bill At what probability or less would Country B be the best option? 160 210 Fails

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Management is uncomfortable stating probabilities for the states of nature for a trade bill passing.
Depending on its probability they will invest in one of three countries; A, B, or C.
Let p denote the probability of the bill passing.
A
B
C
p >0.7619
p <0.6234
p <0.4545
Trade Bill
Passes
p>0.4545
p < 0.7619
320
260
370
Trade Bill
At what probability or less would Country B be the best option?
160
210
Fails
Transcribed Image Text:Management is uncomfortable stating probabilities for the states of nature for a trade bill passing. Depending on its probability they will invest in one of three countries; A, B, or C. Let p denote the probability of the bill passing. A B C p >0.7619 p <0.6234 p <0.4545 Trade Bill Passes p>0.4545 p < 0.7619 320 260 370 Trade Bill At what probability or less would Country B be the best option? 160 210 Fails
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