Lubbock Co. expects to pay €180,000 in one month for its imports from France. It also expects to receive €220,000 for its exports to Belgium in one month. Lubbock estimates the standard deviation of monthly percentage changes of the euro to be 4.5 percent over the last 50 months. Assume that these percentage changes are normally distributed. Using the value-at-risk (VAR)method based on a 99% confidence level, what is the maximum one month loss in dollars if the expected percentage change of the euro during next month is 2.5%? Assume that current spot rate of the euro (before considering the maximum one-month loss) is $1.18 per euro. (95% confidence interval is 1.645 o, 97.5% confidence interval is 1.960, and 99% confidence interval is 2.326 o) -$2,313.98. O-$2,983.04. -$3,760.42. -$3,186.80. O-$7,536.24.
Continuous Probability Distributions
Probability distributions are of two types, which are continuous probability distributions and discrete probability distributions. A continuous probability distribution contains an infinite number of values. For example, if time is infinite: you could count from 0 to a trillion seconds, billion seconds, so on indefinitely. A discrete probability distribution consists of only a countable set of possible values.
Normal Distribution
Suppose we had to design a bathroom weighing scale, how would we decide what should be the range of the weighing machine? Would we take the highest recorded human weight in history and use that as the upper limit for our weighing scale? This may not be a great idea as the sensitivity of the scale would get reduced if the range is too large. At the same time, if we keep the upper limit too low, it may not be usable for a large percentage of the population!
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