Let us consider the population of people living in a city and its suburb and the migration within this population rom the city and the suburbs to the city and the suburbs. The migration of these populations from and to each other is given by a stochastic matrix [.95 .03] P = .05 .97 The entries in this matrix were obtained from collected data that demonstrates individuals are 95 % likely to emain in the city, 5 % likely to move from the city to the suburbs, 3 % likely to move from the suburbs to he city, and 97 % likely to remain in the suburbs. Now suppose in the year 2000 60 % or .6 percent of people live in the city and 40 % or .4 percent of people ive in the suburbs. What will be the percentage of people living in the city be in the year 2001? What will pe the percentage of people living in the suburbs be in 2002?

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### Understanding Population Migration Using Markov Chains

#### Migration Between a City and Its Suburb

Let's consider the population dynamics between a city and its suburb, focusing on migration patterns within this population. The migration between the city and the suburbs is described by a stochastic matrix:

\[ P = \begin{pmatrix}
0.95 & 0.03 \\ 
0.05 & 0.97 
\end{pmatrix} \]

#### Explaining the Stochastic Matrix

The entries in this matrix are derived from collected data showing the likelihood of individuals staying or moving between the city and its suburb:
- 95% likely to remain in the city
- 5% likely to move from the city to the suburbs
- 3% likely to move from the suburbs to the city
- 97% likely to remain in the suburbs

#### Prediction Using Initial Population Data

Suppose in the year 2000, 60% (\(0.6\)) of the population lives in the city, and 40% (\(0.4\)) lives in the suburbs. We want to determine the expected population distribution for the years 2001 and 2002.

#### Calculation Hints

*Recall:* For a general Markov Chain \( (S, x_0, P) \), the initial vector \( x_0 \) must be a probability vector, meaning its entries sum to 1. Typically, for random walks, this vector consists of all zeros and a single 1. However, that is not the case here.

To solve this problem:
1. Use the provided probabilities to define your initial vector \( x_0 \).
2. Compute the vector \( P x_0 = x_1 \). This vector \( x_1 \) will show the population distribution after one year (2001).
3. To determine the distribution in 2002, calculate \( P x_1 = x_2 \).

The resulting vectors \( x_1 \) and \( x_2 \) will represent the percentages of the population in the city and suburbs for the years 2001 and 2002, respectively.

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### Step-by-Step Example

Given \( x_0 = \begin{pmatrix} 0.6 \\ 0.4 \end{pmatrix} \) for the year 2000:
Transcribed Image Text:Certainly! Below is the transcription of the image, suitable for an educational website: --- ### Understanding Population Migration Using Markov Chains #### Migration Between a City and Its Suburb Let's consider the population dynamics between a city and its suburb, focusing on migration patterns within this population. The migration between the city and the suburbs is described by a stochastic matrix: \[ P = \begin{pmatrix} 0.95 & 0.03 \\ 0.05 & 0.97 \end{pmatrix} \] #### Explaining the Stochastic Matrix The entries in this matrix are derived from collected data showing the likelihood of individuals staying or moving between the city and its suburb: - 95% likely to remain in the city - 5% likely to move from the city to the suburbs - 3% likely to move from the suburbs to the city - 97% likely to remain in the suburbs #### Prediction Using Initial Population Data Suppose in the year 2000, 60% (\(0.6\)) of the population lives in the city, and 40% (\(0.4\)) lives in the suburbs. We want to determine the expected population distribution for the years 2001 and 2002. #### Calculation Hints *Recall:* For a general Markov Chain \( (S, x_0, P) \), the initial vector \( x_0 \) must be a probability vector, meaning its entries sum to 1. Typically, for random walks, this vector consists of all zeros and a single 1. However, that is not the case here. To solve this problem: 1. Use the provided probabilities to define your initial vector \( x_0 \). 2. Compute the vector \( P x_0 = x_1 \). This vector \( x_1 \) will show the population distribution after one year (2001). 3. To determine the distribution in 2002, calculate \( P x_1 = x_2 \). The resulting vectors \( x_1 \) and \( x_2 \) will represent the percentages of the population in the city and suburbs for the years 2001 and 2002, respectively. --- ### Step-by-Step Example Given \( x_0 = \begin{pmatrix} 0.6 \\ 0.4 \end{pmatrix} \) for the year 2000:
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