lection 2008 During the spring of 2006 the news media were already conducting opinion polls that tracked the fortunes of the major candidates hoping to become the president of the United States. One such poll conducted by Financial Dynamics showed the following results:1 “Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 election were held today and the candidates were Democrat [see below] and Republican [see below], for whom would you vote?” John McCain (R) Hillary Clinton (D) Unsure % % % 46 42 13 John McCain Al Gore Unsure % % % 51 33 15 Rudy Giuliani Hillary Clinton Unsure % % % 49 40 12 Rudy Giuliani Al Gore Unsure % % % 50 37 13
Election 2008 During the spring of 2006 the news media were already conducting opinion polls that tracked the fortunes of the major candidates hoping to become the president of the United States. One such poll conducted by Financial Dynamics showed the following results:1
“Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 election were held today and the candidates were Democrat [see below] and Republican [see below], for whom would you vote?”
|
John McCain (R) |
Hillary Clinton (D) |
Unsure |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
46 |
42 |
13 |
|
John McCain |
Al Gore |
Unsure |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
51 |
33 |
15 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
Hillary Clinton |
Unsure |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
49 |
40 |
12 |
|
Rudy Giuliani |
Al Gore |
Unsure |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
50 |
37 |
13 |
The results were based on a sample taken May 16–18, 2006, of 900 registered voters nationwide.
a. If the pollsters were planning to use these results to predict the outcome of the 2008 presidential election, describe the population of interest to them.
b. Describe the actual population from which the sample was drawn.
c. Some pollsters prefer to select a sample of “likely” voters. What is the difference between “registered voters” and “likely voters”? Why is this important?
d. Is the sample selected by the pollsters representative of the population described in part a? Explain.
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