is estimated that about 5% of the professors at Metro State University use illegal drugs. Suppose random drug testing is instituted by state law. The drug test used has certain error rates: 6% of the drug users receive a (false) negative test result, and 4% of the non-drug users receive a (false) positive test result. If they test me next week and the test result comes back positive, how likely is it that I actually do use illegal drugs?

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)
10th Edition
ISBN:9780134753119
Author:Sheldon Ross
Publisher:Sheldon Ross
Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...
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. It is estimated that about 5% of the professors at Metro State University use illegal
drugs. Suppose random drug testing is instituted by state law. The drug test used has
certain error rates: 6% of the drug users receive a (false) negative test result, and 4% of
the non-drug users receive a (false) positive test result. If they test me next week and the
test result comes back positive, how likely is it that I actually do use illegal drugs?

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