Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates the project would cost $8 million today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil will generate positive net cash flows of $4 million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, in 2 years it will have more information about the local geology and about the price of oil. Karns estimates that if it waits 2 years then the project would cost $9 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then there is a 90% chance that the net cash flows would be $4.2 million a year for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $2.2 million a year for 4 years. Assume all cash flows are discounted at 10%. Use the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option. Assume the variance of the project's rate of return is 0.754 and that the risk-free rate is 6%. Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.234 million should be entered as 1.234, not 1,234,000. Round your answer to three decimal places. $ million Icon Key Check My Work

Managerial Accounting
15th Edition
ISBN:9781337912020
Author:Carl Warren, Ph.d. Cma William B. Tayler
Publisher:Carl Warren, Ph.d. Cma William B. Tayler
Chapter12: Capital Investment Analysis
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 3CMA
icon
Related questions
Question
Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis
The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates the project would cost $8 million
today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil will generate positive net cash flows of $4 million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the
company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, in 2 years it will have more information about the local geology and about the price of oil. Karns
estimates that if it waits 2 years then the project would cost $9 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then there is a 90% chance that the net cash flows would
be $4.2 million a year for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $2.2 million a year for 4 years. Assume all cash flows are discounted at 10%. Use the
Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option. Assume the variance of the project's rate of return is 0.754 and that the risk-free rate is 6%. Do not
round intermediate calculations. Enter your answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.234 million should be entered as 1.234, not 1,234,000. Round
your answer to three decimal places.
$
million
Icon Key
Check My Work
Transcribed Image Text:Investment Timing Option: Option Analysis The Karns Oil Company is deciding whether to drill for oil on a tract of land that the company owns. The company estimates the project would cost $8 million today. Karns estimates that, once drilled, the oil will generate positive net cash flows of $4 million a year at the end of each of the next 4 years. Although the company is fairly confident about its cash flow forecast, in 2 years it will have more information about the local geology and about the price of oil. Karns estimates that if it waits 2 years then the project would cost $9 million. Moreover, if it waits 2 years, then there is a 90% chance that the net cash flows would be $4.2 million a year for 4 years and a 10% chance that they would be $2.2 million a year for 4 years. Assume all cash flows are discounted at 10%. Use the Black-Scholes model to estimate the value of the option. Assume the variance of the project's rate of return is 0.754 and that the risk-free rate is 6%. Do not round intermediate calculations. Enter your answer in millions. For example, an answer of $1.234 million should be entered as 1.234, not 1,234,000. Round your answer to three decimal places. $ million Icon Key Check My Work
Expert Solution
steps

Step by step

Solved in 2 steps

Blurred answer
Similar questions
  • SEE MORE QUESTIONS
Recommended textbooks for you
Managerial Accounting
Managerial Accounting
Accounting
ISBN:
9781337912020
Author:
Carl Warren, Ph.d. Cma William B. Tayler
Publisher:
South-Western College Pub
Financial And Managerial Accounting
Financial And Managerial Accounting
Accounting
ISBN:
9781337902663
Author:
WARREN, Carl S.
Publisher:
Cengage Learning,
EBK CONTEMPORARY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
EBK CONTEMPORARY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
Finance
ISBN:
9781337514835
Author:
MOYER
Publisher:
CENGAGE LEARNING - CONSIGNMENT
Principles of Accounting Volume 2
Principles of Accounting Volume 2
Accounting
ISBN:
9781947172609
Author:
OpenStax
Publisher:
OpenStax College
Intermediate Financial Management (MindTap Course…
Intermediate Financial Management (MindTap Course…
Finance
ISBN:
9781337395083
Author:
Eugene F. Brigham, Phillip R. Daves
Publisher:
Cengage Learning
Financial Management: Theory & Practice
Financial Management: Theory & Practice
Finance
ISBN:
9781337909730
Author:
Brigham
Publisher:
Cengage