information, what should they believe the probability they are winning is?
Holt Mcdougal Larson Pre-algebra: Student Edition 2012
1st Edition
ISBN:9780547587776
Author:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Publisher:HOLT MCDOUGAL
Chapter11: Data Analysis And Probability
Section11.8: Probabilities Of Disjoint And Overlapping Events
Problem 2C
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Transcribed Image Text:A political candidate is trying to determine the state of the race. Based on prior information, they believe that there is a 70% chance that they are ahead. They commission a new poll. This poll has an 80% chance of correctly identifying who is ahead. So, if the candidate is in fact ahead, the poll would show they are ahead 80% of the time, and behind 20% of the time. Conversely, if the candidate is behind, the poll would show they are ahead 20% of the time and behind 80% of the time. The new poll shows that contrary to prior information, the candidate is losing the race. Given all this information, what should they believe the probability they are winning is?
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