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In practice, are all return series serially correlated
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- Logarithms are especially useful for comparing series with two divergent scales since 10 percent growth always looks the same, regardless of the starting level. When absolute levels matter, the raw data are more appropriate, but when growth rates are whats important, log scales are better.Estimate the double-log (log linear) time trend model for log cruise ship arrivals against log time. Estimate a linear time trend model of cruise ship arrivals against time. Calculate the root mean square error between the predicted and actual value of cruise ship arrivals. Is the root mean square error greater for the double log non-linear time trend model or for the linear time trend model?The forecasting staff for the Prizer Corporation has developed a model to predict sales of its air-cushioned-ride snowmobiles. The model specifies that sales S vary jointly with disposable personal income Y and the population between ages 15 and 40, Z, and inversely with the price of the snowmobiles P. Based on past data, the best estimate of this relationship is S=kYZP where k has been estimated (with past data) to equal 100. If Y=11,000,Z=1,200, and P=20,000, what value would you predict for S? What happens if P is reduced to $17,500? How would you go about developing a value for k? What are the potential weaknesses of this model?
- Furniture Forecasting Futura Furniture Products manufactures upscale office furniture for the Office of the Future. The sales division comprises regionally based sales offices made up of sales representatives and regional managers. Sales representativeswho report to the regional managersconduct direct sales efforts with customers in their regions. As part of the sales process, representatives gather information about likely future orders and convey that information back to the regional managers. Regional managers use that information to create sales forecasts, which are then used as the basis for manufacturing schedules. Sales representatives and regional managers are both compensated on a salary plus commission (percentage of revenue as pricing is centrally controlled). However, a regional managers commission is adjusted based on regional sales that exceed the forecasted budget. Corporate managers are concerned with one of Futuras key products, the DeskPod. They worry that DeskPod forecasts are inaccurate, causing extreme havoc in the manufacturing process. How are the forecasts likely to be inaccurate? What do you think is driving this inaccuracy? How might this problem be solved?In attempting to formulate a model of the passenger arrival data on cruise ships over time would a nonlinear (perhaps a multiplicative exponential) model be preferable to a linear model of cruise ship arrivals against time? What about in the case of the passenger arrivals by ferry against time?The economic analysis division of Mapco Enterprises has estimated the demand function for its line of weed trimmers as QD=18,000+0.4N350PM+90Ps where N=numberofnewhomescompletedintheprimarymarketarea PM=priceoftheMapcotrimmerPS=priceofitscompetitorsSurefiretrimmer In 2010, 15,000 new homes are expected to be completed in the primary market area. Mapco plans to charge $50 for its trimmer. The Surefire trimmer is expected to sell for $55. What sales are forecasted for 2010 under these conditions? If its competitor cuts the price of the Surefire trimmer to $50, what effect will this have on Mapcos sales? What effect would a 30 percent reduction in the number of new homes completed have on Mapcos sales (ignore the impact of the price cut of the Surefire trimmer)?
