In a specific project, ground water level has to be reduced prior to construction and 3 specific well locations have been chosen. The steady state water level (h) at the most critical point can be expressed as a function of pumpage rates (Q) at these locations. h = 1.0+ (0.7* Q₁ + 1.4 * Q₂ + 1.0 * Q3 ) The cost of each well is composed of an initial cost and operating costs (function of discharge) * COST₁ = 30+12 * Q₁ COST₂ = 45 +10 Q2 COST3 = = 38 + 11 * Q3 Formulate a mathematical program that will determine the optimal (cost efficient) well discharges if maximum pumpage rate is limited to 3 m³/sec for each well and the desired steady state level is 8.0m. (Note: Make sure that no initial cost is applicable for a well with zero discharge).
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- The Tinkan Company produces one-pound cans for the Canadian salmon industry. Each year the salmon spawn during a 24-hour period and must be canned immediately. Tinkan has the following agreement with the salmon industry. The company can deliver as many cans as it chooses. Then the salmon are caught. For each can by which Tinkan falls short of the salmon industrys needs, the company pays the industry a 2 penalty. Cans cost Tinkan 1 to produce and are sold by Tinkan for 2 per can. If any cans are left over, they are returned to Tinkan and the company reimburses the industry 2 for each extra can. These extra cans are put in storage for next year. Each year a can is held in storage, a carrying cost equal to 20% of the cans production cost is incurred. It is well known that the number of salmon harvested during a year is strongly related to the number of salmon harvested the previous year. In fact, using past data, Tinkan estimates that the harvest size in year t, Ht (measured in the number of cans required), is related to the harvest size in the previous year, Ht1, by the equation Ht = Ht1et where et is normally distributed with mean 1.02 and standard deviation 0.10. Tinkan plans to use the following production strategy. For some value of x, it produces enough cans at the beginning of year t to bring its inventory up to x+Ht, where Ht is the predicted harvest size in year t. Then it delivers these cans to the salmon industry. For example, if it uses x = 100,000, the predicted harvest size is 500,000 cans, and 80,000 cans are already in inventory, then Tinkan produces and delivers 520,000 cans. Given that the harvest size for the previous year was 550,000 cans, use simulation to help Tinkan develop a production strategy that maximizes its expected profit over the next 20 years. Assume that the company begins year 1 with an initial inventory of 300,000 cans.You now have 10,000, all of which is invested in a sports team. Each year there is a 60% chance that the value of the team will increase by 60% and a 40% chance that the value of the team will decrease by 60%. Estimate the mean and median value of your investment after 50 years. Explain the large difference between the estimated mean and median.Assume the demand for a companys drug Wozac during the current year is 50,000, and assume demand will grow at 5% a year. If the company builds a plant that can produce x units of Wozac per year, it will cost 16x. Each unit of Wozac is sold for 3. Each unit of Wozac produced incurs a variable production cost of 0.20. It costs 0.40 per year to operate a unit of capacity. Determine how large a Wozac plant the company should build to maximize its expected profit over the next 10 years.
- W. L. Brown, a direct marketer of womens clothing, must determine how many telephone operators to schedule during each part of the day. W. L. Brown estimates that the number of phone calls received each hour of a typical eight-hour shift can be described by the probability distribution in the file P10_33.xlsx. Each operator can handle 15 calls per hour and costs the company 20 per hour. Each phone call that is not handled is assumed to cost the company 6 in lost profit. Considering the options of employing 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, or 16 operators, use simulation to determine the number of operators that minimizes the expected hourly cost (labor costs plus lost profits).At the beginning of each week, a machine is in one of four conditions: 1 = excellent; 2 = good; 3 = average; 4 = bad. The weekly revenue earned by a machine in state 1, 2, 3, or 4 is 100, 90, 50, or 10, respectively. After observing the condition of the machine at the beginning of the week, the company has the option, for a cost of 200, of instantaneously replacing the machine with an excellent machine. The quality of the machine deteriorates over time, as shown in the file P10 41.xlsx. Four maintenance policies are under consideration: Policy 1: Never replace a machine. Policy 2: Immediately replace a bad machine. Policy 3: Immediately replace a bad or average machine. Policy 4: Immediately replace a bad, average, or good machine. Simulate each of these policies for 50 weeks (using at least 250 iterations each) to determine the policy that maximizes expected weekly profit. Assume that the machine at the beginning of week 1 is excellent.The operations manager for a water taxi company wants to decide whether to purchase a small, medium, or large new boat for the company. The manager estimates that the annual profits (in thousands of dollars) will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low, moderate, or high, as shown in the following table. ооо Boat none Small Medium Low Medium 49 38 Large Probability 0.3 Demand 21 60 82 53 0.3 High 68 90 118 If the company uses the expected value approach, which size boat will it decide to purchase? small medium large 0.4
- A manager uses this equation to predict demand for landscaping services: Ft= 10 + 5t Over the past eight periods, demand has been as follows: Period, t: 1 Demand: 15 2 21 Period, t Tracking signal 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 3 23 30 5 32 6 38 42 Click here for the Excel Data File Compute the tracking signals for Periods 1-8. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.) 8 47The Platinum Star Hotel in Kingston, NY, is considering doing overbooking in order to deal with the constant problem they have with no-shows. The table given below presents the number of no-shows and the probability of each occurring. Number of Shows (d) Probability of No-shows Occurring P(d) 0 0.10 1 0.07 2 0.12 3 0.02 4 0.07 5 0.01 6 0.04 7 0.19 8 0.22 9 0.16 a) What would be your recommendation for overbooking if the average rate per room per night is S125 and the cost of not honoring a reservation is $155? b) What is the expected loss for your overbooking choice? c) State the reasoning for selecting your overbooking choice?JayZee Electronics wanted to expand its operations by considering of putting up another warehouse to store their electronic supplies from different suppliers. The table below shows the payoff for all alternatives available for JayZee Electronics in all 3 states of nature. The probabilities for every state of nature is also provided. Size of the Warehouse Good Market ($) Fair Market ($) Poor Market ($) Small 40,000 -10,000 -20,000 18,000 Medium 80,000 90,000 Large Very Large -40,000 -160,000 100,000 175,000 350,000 25,000 Probabilities 0.35 0.45 0.20 Using Decision Making under Uncertainty (Use Sheet 1 and rename it to Lastname_Uncertainty) (a) Develop a decision table for this decision. (b) What is the maximax decision? (c) What is the maximin decision? (d) What is the equally likely decision? (e) What is the criterion of realism decision? Use an a value of 0.8. (f) Develop an opportunity loss table. (g) What is the minimax regret decision? Using Decision Making under Risk (Use Sheet 1…
- The operations manager for a water taxi company wants to decide whether to purchase a small, medium, or large new boat for the company. The manager estimates that the annual profits (in thousands of dollars) will vary depending upon whether passenger demand is low, moderate, or high, as shown in the following table. Demand Boat Low Medium High Small 53 63 73 Medium 39 82 92 Large 19 48 120 Probability 0.25 0.3 0.45 What is the expected value of perfect information? ○ $16,100 $21,100 $75,750 $96,850Cool Beans is a locally owned coffeeshop that competes with two large coffee chains, PlanetEuro and Frothies. Alicia, the owner, is considering two different marketing promotions and thinks that CLV analysis will help her decide the best course of action. An average specialty coffee drink sells for $4 and has a margin of 66%. One promotion is providing loyalty cards to her regular customers that would give them one free specialty coffee drink after 10 regular purchases. Alicia estimates that this will increase the frequency of their purchases by 16%. Currently, her customers average buying 2 specialty drinks per week.The second promotion is targeted at new customers. She would offer a free specialty drink to incoming college freshmen by providing a coupon with their orientation packages. Because of her location near the college, she expects that 330 students will come to Cool Beans for a free trial. Of those, she anticipates that 13% will become regular customers who will purchase at…Suppose my utility function for asset position x is givenby u(x) ln x.a Am I risk-averse, risk-neutral, or risk-seeking? b I now have $20,000 and am considering the follow-ing two lotteries: L1: With probability 1, I lose $1,000.L2: With probability .9, I gain $0.L2: With probability .1, I lose $10,000.Determine which lottery I prefer and the risk premium of L2.