HW-15 (Please answer the given answer form) Problem 1: Determine the MSE based on the following forecast (Carry on up to two decimal points). 204 Month 6 Demand 2211181017 Forecast 20 14 16 12 19 18 Problem 2: Consider the following demand data (Carry on up to two decimal points). Month Demand 221 a. Develop a forecast for Month 6 demand using a three-month moving average for given data. b. Develop a forecast for month 5 demand using Weighted Moving Average with w1-0.2 (February), w2-0.3 (March), and w3 -0.5 (April). Problem 3: Consider the following time series data (Carry on up to two

HW-15 (Please answer the given answer form) Problem 1: Determine the MSE based on the following forecast (Carry on up to two decimal points). 204 Month 6 Demand 2211181017 Forecast 20 14 16 12 19 18 Problem 2: Consider the following demand data (Carry on up to two decimal points). Month Demand 221 a. Develop a forecast for Month 6 demand using a three-month moving average for given data. b. Develop a forecast for month 5 demand using Weighted Moving Average with w1-0.2 (February), w2-0.3 (March), and w3 -0.5 (April). Problem 3: Consider the following time series data (Carry on up to two

Managerial Economics: Applications, Strategies and Tactics (MindTap Course List)

14th Edition

ISBN:9781305506381

Author:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris

Publisher:James R. McGuigan, R. Charles Moyer, Frederick H.deB. Harris

Chapter5: Business And Economic Forecasting

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 5E: A firm experienced the demand shown in the following table. *Unkown future value to be forecast Fill...

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The table below shows the demand for a particular brand of fax machine in a department store in each of the last twelve months. 12 Month Demand 12 15 19 5 6 7 23 27 30 32 33 37 3 4 8 9 10 11 12 41 49 58 a) Calculate the four month. What would be your forecast for the demand in month 13?
Consider the following actual and forecast demandlevels for Big Mac hamburgers at a local McDonald’s restaurant:DAY ACTUAL DEMAND FORECAST DEMANDMonday 88 88Tuesday 72 88Wednesday 68 84Thursday 48 80FridayThe forecast for Monday was derived by observing Monday’sdemand level and setting Monday’s forecast level equal to this demand level. Subsequent forecasts were derived by using expo-nential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.25. Using this exponential smoothing method, what is the forecast for Big Macdemand for Friday?
Based on the information in the following table, use the Exponential Smoothing Approach (a = 0.5) to forecast the demand for periods 4-11 PERIOD MONTH Demand Forecast Jan 89 2. Feb 151 89 3 Mar 60 120 4. Apr 107 May 131 9. Jun 140 7 Jul 71 8. Aug 94 sep 102 10 Oct 119 11 Nov
Two different forecasting techniques (F1 and F2) were used to forecast demand for cases of bottled water. Actual demand and the two sets of forecasts are as follows: PREDICTED DEMAND Period Demand F1 F2 1 66 75 67 3 70 70 4 74 69 72 69 70 73 6. 72 68 75 7 80 77 8. 78 74 84 Click here for the Excel Data File a. Compute MAD for each set of forecasts. Given your results, which forecast appears to be more accurate? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) MAD F1 MAD F2 appears to be more accurate. 3o5 o o 0 o 677 6 N LO N N 677 6700
I Consider the demand for trading cards listed below. Month Demand Jan. 51,000 48,000 Feb. March 55,000 April May 58,000 66,000 June 69,000 80,000 July Aug. 95,000 Use Excel to prepare a forecast for September, October, and November using linear regression Print out the sheet of results, as well as a sheet containing the formulas that you used ( can be used to toggle between displaying values and displaying formulas or you can click on Formulas>Formula Auditing→Show Formulas.) and for the cars is 16.000
Part C 3. The manager of a certain gasoline station wants to forecast the demand for the unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be ordered from the distributor. The manager has accumulated the following data demand for unleaded gasoline from sales during the past eight months. Month Gasoline Demanded (gallons) Mar 900 Given that the forecast for March is 920. Apr 755 May 650 Jun 550 Jul 625 Aug 730 Sept 820 Oct 1 100 a. Compute the exponential smoothed forecast for the demand from April to November. Use a = 0.25. b. Compute the exponential smoothed forecast for the demand from April to November. Use a = 0.45. c. Plot the actual demand and the forecasts determined in part a and b on the same graph and compare them. d. Make a comparative analysis out of your answers in the plotted data. (3-5 sentences)
5. Exercise 5.5 A firm experienced the demand shown in the following table. Fill in the table by preparing forecasts based on a five-year moving average, a three-year moving average, and exponential smoothing (w = 0.9 forecasts may be begun by assuming Y t+ F Yt •) and w = 0.3 ). (Note: The exponential smoothing Moving Average Actual Demand (5-year) (3-year) Exponential Smoothing (W = 0.9) Year (W = 0.3) 2000 900 2001 885 900 900 2002 875 2003 870 887 ▼ 2004 870 877 ▼ 2005 875 880 872 Y 2006 885 875 872 2007 900 875 877 2008 920 880 887 - 2009 945 890 902 Y 2010 905 922 The following table shows the square errors, (Y; - T1-) , for forecasts from 2005 through 2009. Fill the table by calculating the root mean square error (RMSE) for each of the methods. Square Error Exponential Smoothing Moving Average Year (5-year) (3-year) (W = 0.9) (W = 0.3) 2005 25 9 25 25 2006 100 169 100 36 2007 625 529 256 361 2008 1,600 1,089 484 1,089 2009 3,025 1,849 729 2,304 RMSE Based on the RMSE criterion,…
Consider the following demand data. Period 6. 8. 6. 10 demand 130 452 428 470 478 Use Holt's method to obtain forecasts for periods 11,12, and 13. Use all data, Le., the forecast is determined after observing the demand 480 498 500 810 488 in period 10 and Ne10. Use the following initial estimates.
One of South Africa’s biggest highways is getting an upgrade – with traffic delays comingsooner than expectedThe South African National Roads Agency (Sanral) has announced that it will introduce traffic measures on the N3highway outside Pietermaritzburg earlier than expected as it begins major upgrade work.The agency said it will move to introduce a ‘contraflow’ traffic pattern between Camperdown and Dardanelles onthe N3 route from Wednesday evening (9 March).The route is seen as one of the country’s major arteries and is seen as essential to the flow of food and otheressential goods from the country’s biggest port in Durban to its most populous city Johannesburg.“Contraflow is a temporary arrangement where traffic on a road is transferred from its usual side to share the otherhalf of the carriageway with traffic moving in the opposite direction,” said Mohamed Parak, Sanral’s eastern regionproject manager. The upgrade to the highway is aimed at addressing which form of market failure?…
the following data represents a set do demands that have occurred over the last several years at a soap making company. The data were collected on an annual basis. Year Actual Demand (At) Forecast (Ft) 1 310 2 365 3 395 4 415 5 450 6 465 7 a) using the SIMPLE AVERAGE method to predict the demand for the 7th year b) the SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE method to predict the demand for the 7th year
The ABC Toy Company makes a few types of toy cars on one of its production line. Based on orders received and forecasts of future demand, it is estimated that the demand (in units) for the next four seasons is: Fall 10,000; Winter 8000; Spring 7,000; Summer 12,000. Inventory at the beginning of Fall is 660 units. At the beginning of Fall, ABC has 30 workers. Relevant costs: hiring: $100/worker hiredlayoff: $200/worker laid offinventory holding: $5/unit/seasonbackorder: $10/unitregular time cost: $5/hour Assume that the productivity is 0.5 units per worker hour, with eight hours per day and 60 days per season. Inventory cost is estimated based on the ending inventory for each period. The relevant costs are shown in the accompanying table.(a) Find the total cost of the level plan.(b) Find the total cost of the chase plan.(c) Suppose that ABC has negotiated with the union on the option of using the regular workforce on overtime ($8/hour) during Winter and Spring, if necessary. Overtime is…
Metropolitan Hospital has estimated its average monthly bed needs as N=1,000+9X where X=timeperiod(months);January2002=0 N=monthlybedneeds Assume that no new hospital additions are expected in the area in the foreseeable future. The following monthly seasonal adjustment factors have been estimated, using data from the past five years: Forecast Metropolitans bed demand for January, April, July, November, and December 2007. If the following actual and forecast values for June bed demands have been recorded, what seasonal adjustment factor would you recommend be used in making future June forecasts?