How the following equation is calcluated? I want to know how to calculate p(AIE1) The original question is: Brett and Margo have each thought about murder- ing their rich Uncle Basil in hopes of claiming their in- heritance a bit early. Hoping to take advantage of Basil’s predilection for immoderate desserts, Brett has put rat poison into the cherries flambe ́ ; Margo, unaware of Brett’s activities, has laced the chocolate mousse with
How the following equation is calcluated?
I want to know how to calculate p(AIE1)
The original question is:
Brett and Margo have each thought about murder- ing their rich Uncle Basil in hopes of claiming their in- heritance a bit early. Hoping to take advantage of Basil’s predilection for immoderate desserts, Brett has put rat poison into the cherries flambe ́ ; Margo, unaware of Brett’s activities, has laced the chocolate mousse with cyanide. Given the amounts likely to be eaten, the probability of the rat poison being fatal is 0.60; the cyanide, 0.90. Based on other dinners where Basil was presented with the same dessert options, we can assume that he has a 50% chance of asking for the cherries flambe ́ , a 40% chance of order- ing the chocolate mousse, and a 10% chance of skipping dessert altogether. No sooner are the dishes cleared away than Basil drops dead. In the absence of any other evi- dence, who should be considered the prime suspect?
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