Here,Alpha 0.2 1) find out the best alpha?
Contemporary Marketing
18th Edition
ISBN:9780357033777
Author:Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz
Publisher:Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz
Chapter14: Pricing Strategies
Section14.2: Forecasting Demand
Problem 1LO
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Question
Here,Alpha 0.2
1) find out the best alpha?
![Exhibit 4.8 Derivation of Forecasts
Data
Forecast
Error Forecast for t+1
(S)
(F)
(e,= S,-F)
F1= F+ae,
t+1
F2= 29.0 + 0.2 (-1.0) = 28.8
F = 28.8 +0.2 (0.2) = 28.8
F = 28.8 + 0.2 (-0.3) = 28.7
F = 28.7 + 0.2 (2.3) = 29.2
F = 29.2 + 0.2 (5.0) = 30.2
F, = 30.2 + 0.2 (2.5) = 30.7
Fg = 30.7 + 0.2 (2.8) = 31.3
F = 31.3 + 0.2 (0.5) = 31.4
F10 31.4 +0.2 (0.5) = 31.5
F1= 31.5 + 0.2 (2.8) = 32.1
F12 = 32.1 + 0.2 (3.1) = 32.7
29.0
-1.0
%3D
1
28.0
29.0
28.8
0.2
-0.3
%3D
3
28.5
28.8
31.0
28.7
2.3
%3D
5.0
%3!
34.2
29.2
32.7
30.2
2.5
2.8
%3D
33.5
30.7
0.5
%3D
31.8
31.3
31.9
31.4
0.5
10
34.3
31.5
2.8
11
35.2
32.1
3.1](/v2/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcontent.bartleby.com%2Fqna-images%2Fquestion%2Fe0a0c446-101b-46d4-95de-830693d71f38%2F4f8d7adf-130c-47ff-b629-f64c90fb8caf%2Fg1dvoo9_processed.jpeg&w=3840&q=75)
Transcribed Image Text:Exhibit 4.8 Derivation of Forecasts
Data
Forecast
Error Forecast for t+1
(S)
(F)
(e,= S,-F)
F1= F+ae,
t+1
F2= 29.0 + 0.2 (-1.0) = 28.8
F = 28.8 +0.2 (0.2) = 28.8
F = 28.8 + 0.2 (-0.3) = 28.7
F = 28.7 + 0.2 (2.3) = 29.2
F = 29.2 + 0.2 (5.0) = 30.2
F, = 30.2 + 0.2 (2.5) = 30.7
Fg = 30.7 + 0.2 (2.8) = 31.3
F = 31.3 + 0.2 (0.5) = 31.4
F10 31.4 +0.2 (0.5) = 31.5
F1= 31.5 + 0.2 (2.8) = 32.1
F12 = 32.1 + 0.2 (3.1) = 32.7
29.0
-1.0
%3D
1
28.0
29.0
28.8
0.2
-0.3
%3D
3
28.5
28.8
31.0
28.7
2.3
%3D
5.0
%3!
34.2
29.2
32.7
30.2
2.5
2.8
%3D
33.5
30.7
0.5
%3D
31.8
31.3
31.9
31.4
0.5
10
34.3
31.5
2.8
11
35.2
32.1
3.1
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