George Gallup erred in 1948 by predicting Thomas Dewey would win the presidential election that year. Did the presence of third-party nominees in the race, Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace respectively, who were polling fairly well, cause the election models to not accurately reflect the actions of late deciders? Is this still a problem with election models today? Is it possible that the electoral college v. popular vote discrepancies seen in the 2000 and 2016 elections are partially accounted for by the presence of stronger than usual third-party candidates?
George Gallup erred in 1948 by predicting Thomas Dewey would win the presidential election that year. Did the presence of third-party nominees in the race, Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace respectively, who were polling fairly well, cause the election models to not accurately reflect the actions of late deciders? Is this still a problem with election models today? Is it possible that the electoral college v. popular vote discrepancies seen in the 2000 and 2016 elections are partially accounted for by the presence of stronger than usual third-party candidates?
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George Gallup erred in 1948 by predicting Thomas Dewey would win the presidential election that year. Did the presence of third-party nominees in the race, Strom Thurmond and Henry Wallace respectively, who were polling fairly well, cause the election models to not accurately reflect the actions of late deciders? Is this still a problem with election models today? Is it possible that the electoral college v. popular vote discrepancies seen in the 2000 and 2016 elections are partially accounted for by the presence of stronger than usual third-party candidates?
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