C. Fox, marketing director for Metro-Goldmine Motion Pictures, believes that the studio’s upcoming release has a 60 percent chance of being a hit, a 25 percent chance of being a moderate success, and a 15 percent chance of being a flop. To test the accuracy of his opinion, T. C. has scheduled two test screenings. After each screening, the audience rates the film on a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being best. From his long experience in the industry, T. C. knows that 60 percent of the time, a hit picture will receive a rating of 7 or higher; 30 percent of the time, it will receive a rating of 4, 5, or 6; and 10 percent of the time, it will receive a rating of 3 or lower. For a moderately successful picture, the respective probabilities are 0.30, 0.45, and 0.25; for a flop, the respective probabilities are 0.15, 0.35, and 0.50. If the first test screening produces a score of 6 and the second screening yields a score of 2, what is the probability that the film will be a flop (assuming that the screening results are independent of each other)?

Let us denote, H=hit M=moderate success F=flop Rating 7,8,9,10= A Rating 4,5,6=B Rating 1,2,3=C…

Answered: Fox, marketing director for…

A First Course in Probability (10th Edition)

10th Edition

ISBN:9780134753119

Author:Sheldon Ross

Publisher:Sheldon Ross

Chapter1: Combinatorial Analysis

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 1.1P: a. How many different 7-place license plates are possible if the first 2 places are for letters and...

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C. Fox, marketing director for Metro-Goldmine Motion Pictures, believes that the studio’s upcoming release has a 60 percent chance of being a hit, a 25 percent chance of being a moderate success, and a 15 percent chance of being a flop. To test the accuracy of his opinion, T. C. has scheduled two test screenings. After each screening, the audience rates the film on a scale of 1 to 10, 10 being best. From his long experience in the industry, T. C. knows that 60 percent of the time, a hit picture will receive a rating of 7 or higher; 30 percent of the time, it will receive a rating of 4, 5, or 6; and 10 percent of the time, it will receive a rating of 3 or lower. For a moderately successful picture, the respective probabilities are 0.30, 0.45, and 0.25; for a flop, the respective probabilities are 0.15, 0.35, and 0.50.

If the first test screening produces a score of 6 and the second screening yields a score of 2, what is the probability that the film will be a flop (assuming that the screening results are independent of each other)?

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