Four friends are dining at the SFCC Cafe.  They are discussing the chance it will rain in Spokane the next day.  Abe says "it either will or it won't, so there is a  50-50 chance." Boris says " I checked the records for the last 100 years, and it rains 15% of the days in July, so I would estimate 15% chance.  Clara says "I have lived my whole life in Spokane, and it feels to me like it will rain, so I estimate an 80% chance.  Dora says "It will rain for sure if I do my rain dance, otherwise there is no chance." Which of the four is using the conditional theory of probability?

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