For the E-Commerce Retail Sales (Million$) data given in the table below, provide estimates from the 1st Quarter (Q1) of 2016 to the 3rd Quarter (Q3) of 2017 by using two models:1) Single Exponential Smoothing with α=0.32) Moving Average with k=2.Calculate MAPE for each model.QuarterYearActualQ1201686802Q2201692004Q3201693795Q42016124651Q1201799491Q22017106590Q32017108291 Compare two models above (Single Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average) based on their accuracies. Which forecasting method appears to be better? Using the model you choose, provide forecast for the 4th Quarter (Q4) of 2017. Assuming that this model is overestimating, find the actual value of the Q4 of 2017 based on MAPE value. Some residual graphs from the first forecast model (including wider range of E-Commerce Retail Sales data) are given below. What do these graphs tell about the model? Explain each graph. Histogram(response is E-CommerceRetailSales, Millions)Versus Order(response is E-CommerceRetailsales, Millions)50000404000030000200001000010000200003000040000so000102040so607080ResidualObservation OrderFrequencyResidual

Answered: For the E-Commerce Retail Sales…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...

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For the E-Commerce Retail Sales (Million$) data given in the table below, provide estimates from the 1st Quarter (Q1) of 2016 to the 3rd Quarter (Q3) of 2017 by using two models:

1) Single Exponential Smoothing with α=0.3

2) Moving Average with k=2.

Calculate MAPE for each model.

Quarter	Year	Actual
Q1	2016	86802
Q2	2016	92004
Q3	2016	93795
Q4	2016	124651
Q1	2017	99491
Q2	2017	106590
Q3	2017	108291

Compare two models above (Single Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average) based on their accuracies. Which forecasting method appears to be better? Using the model you choose, provide forecast for the 4th Quarter (Q4) of 2017. Assuming that this model is overestimating, find the actual value of the Q4 of 2017 based on MAPE value.

Some residual graphs from the first forecast model (including wider range of E-Commerce Retail Sales data) are given below. What do these graphs tell about the model? Explain each graph.

Histogram
(response is E-CommerceRetailSales, Millions)
Versus Order
(response is E-CommerceRetailsales, Millions)
50000
40
40000
30000
20000
10000
10000
20000
30000
40000
so000
10
20
40
so
60
70
80
Residual
Observation Order
Frequency
Residual

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