for a certain company, the monthy percentages ot al hipments received on time over the past 12 months are , 2, , , 4, 4, 85, 5, 2, 83, 4, and 3 (4) Construct a time series plot. 36789 10 11 12 1 430710 11 12 13 Month Month Monthly Percentage aeyuaa Monthly Percentage

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MY NOTES
ASK YOUR TEACHER
PRACTICE ANOTHER
For a certain company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are s0, 2, 84, 83,
84, 84, 85, 85, 82, 83, 84, and 83.
(a) Construct a time series plot.
86
85
78
77
0123456789 10 11 12 13
123456 789 10 11 12 13
Month
Month
0 123 4 5 6789 10 11 12 13
12345678 9 10 11 12 13
Month
Manth
What type of pattern exists in the data?
O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal
pattern.
The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhbits a cyclical
pattern.
The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overal the time series plot exhibits a seasonal
pattern,
The last two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a hortzontal
pattern.
Overall, the time series plot exhibits a consistent trend patterm.
(b) Compare the three-month moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach for a01.
Compute the MSE for the three-month moving approach. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
Compute the MSE for the exponential smoothing approach for a = 0.1. (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
Which provides more accurate forecasts using MSE as the measure of forecast accuracy?
O An exponential smoothing approach with a- 0.1 provides the most accurate forecast using MSE.
A 3-month moving average provides the most accurate forecast using MSE.
Both approaches provide the same level of accuracy using MSE.
(c) Using the more accurate approach, what is the forecast for next month? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
Transcribed Image Text:MY NOTES ASK YOUR TEACHER PRACTICE ANOTHER For a certain company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are s0, 2, 84, 83, 84, 84, 85, 85, 82, 83, 84, and 83. (a) Construct a time series plot. 86 85 78 77 0123456789 10 11 12 13 123456 789 10 11 12 13 Month Month 0 123 4 5 6789 10 11 12 13 12345678 9 10 11 12 13 Month Manth What type of pattern exists in the data? O The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a horizontal pattern. The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhbits a cyclical pattern. The first two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overal the time series plot exhibits a seasonal pattern, The last two points may be an indication of a shift to a new level, but overall the time series plot exhibits a hortzontal pattern. Overall, the time series plot exhibits a consistent trend patterm. (b) Compare the three-month moving average approach with the exponential smoothing approach for a01. Compute the MSE for the three-month moving approach. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) Compute the MSE for the exponential smoothing approach for a = 0.1. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) Which provides more accurate forecasts using MSE as the measure of forecast accuracy? O An exponential smoothing approach with a- 0.1 provides the most accurate forecast using MSE. A 3-month moving average provides the most accurate forecast using MSE. Both approaches provide the same level of accuracy using MSE. (c) Using the more accurate approach, what is the forecast for next month? (Round your answer to two decimal places.)
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