Following data set indicates the annual electricity consumption of Sri Lanka in Mega Watt Hours (MWh) from 1996 to 2022.

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Following data set indicates the annual electricity consumption of Sri Lanka in Mega Watt Hours (MWh) from 1996 to 2022.

Year          Electricity Consumption in MWh

1996          1,588

1997          1,558

1998          1,753

1999          1,408

2000          1,310

2001          1,424

2002          1,677

2003 .        1,937

2004           1,685

2005           1,488

2006           1,562

2007           1,619

2008           1,687

2009           1,841

2010           1,865

2011           1,637

2012           1,653

2013           1,699

2014           1,698

2015           1,523

2016           1,557

2017           1,795

2018           1,934

2019            2,125

2020            2,543

2021            2,616

2022            3,191

You are required to forecast the electricity demand of Sri Lanka for the year 2023 using the following smoothing methods and recommend the most appropriate value.

i. Three year moving average method

ii. Six year moving average method

iii. Single exponential smoothing method (smoothing constant = 0.2)

iv. Single exponential smoothing method (smoothing constant = 0.05)

 

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